Posted by Ben K. on Thursday, January 22, 2004
The Beauty of a Triple, in a matter of speaking
As my oh-so-witty title suggests, I have three things for you all today. So without further ado, let me get started. Today marks the beginning of a new feature of the Talking Baseball blog. It's the part where I answer your e-mails. You see that link on the left of your screen? The one that says e-mail TalkingBaseball (a) hotmail.com? Well, that's where our readers, all 328 of you up to 1:10 a.m. on Thursday, January 22, 2004, should be e-mailing us. So opening our inbox, I see...hmmm...one message from Dave checking to make sure that the e-mail account was working properly, and nothing else. So I'm going to answer the e-mail.
Dave, yes, indeed, our e-mail address is working. No need to worry, my friend.
Phew, I'm glad I got that one off my chest. Seriously, dear reader, we want to hear from you. E-mail us your thoughts on how we're doing so far. Do you agree with us? Do you disagree? Do you like our four-man rotation? I know J.P. would; the Blue Jays pitchers, as they showed last spring, wouldn't be so keen on it. Furthermore, send us any topics you want us to tackle. We're certainly open to suggestions. We know you're out there, and we want to start hearing from you. Now on to the baseball...
Age before beauty, or baseball's Energizer battery finally stops
Wednesday was the end of an era for modern baseball. Iron man Jesse Orosco retired after 24 years of big league service. As this article shows, Orosco leaves baseball having pitched in a record 1,252 different regular season games (1,248 of them as a reliever) since debuting for the New York Mets in 1979. While he was signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks this winter to a minor league contract, the lefty will be turning 47 shortly after opening day, and who can really blame him for moving on?
Hopefully, Orosco will be remembered in baseball for many generations to come. Over the course of his career, Orosco threw 1295 innings for 9 different teams. Based on his career numbers, it's highly doubtful Orosco will make the Hall of Fame. He saved only 144 games in his career, compiled a W-L record of 88-80, had a career ERA of 3.16 and a career WHIP of 1.26. Yet, while his career stats are decidedly human and many starting pitchers throw more innings than Orosco did in his career, his career should not be any less revered. Orosco was able to carve a niche for himself that led to his playing on three teams this past season at the age of 46. His record of most career games pitched will be a tough one to reach with not too many pitchers pitching into their 40s. As the trend these days is to flame-throwing relievers like Billy Wagner, Troy Percival, and Mariano Rivera, these pitchers' bodies break down more easily. Orosco is some kind of marvel for our age.
While us Yankee fans, Red Sox fans, and Mets fans will remember Orosco as the one on the mound as the Red Sox lost game 7 of the 1986 World Series, he should remain with baseball outside of any petty rivalries. He's one the greatest iron horses in the history of the game, and his accomplishments must not be forgotten.
A Hidden Gem Among Aces
In glances over the headlines on ESPN.com in between deadlines for my college newspaper of which I am the editor, I noticed a story about the Cubs sort of sneak on to the Top Stories list. In the story--a fairly mundane one for the deadzone of the offseason--the AP reported that the Cubs signed Ryan Dempster to a one-year contract with a team option for 2005. Dempster, as you may recall, missed the last two months of the season with the Reds because he went in for ligament surgery. In much the same way that the Yankees have gambled with Jon Lieber recovering from major arm surgery, the Cubs are hoping for some luck with Dempster, who will probably pitch again in July or August. Yet, if this gamble turns out for the best, the Cubs could have landed themselves a major prize. If Dempster can regain his touch from the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, the Cubs could have cemented the NL Central for the next few years.
In 2000, Dempster was 14-10 with a 3.66 ERA, a really high 1.37 WHIP, and 209 K in just over 226 innings. If you want to get really technical, his numbers from that season look even better with positive values in the RAA column. (That just means he allowed fewer runs than the league average per inning. It's a stat to show, in essence, that his ERA was below the league average.) Even if Dempster pitches at his 2001 level, when he threw a 4.94 ERA, striking out 171 in 211 innings but with a very high WHIP of 1.56, the Cubs will still have found a more-than-adequate fifth starter.
Currently, the Cubs have Prior, Wood, Zambrano, and Clement as their top four starters, making them my pick as the team to beat in the NL Central. If they manage to add a rapidly aging Maddux, they'll just be that much better. But even so, I think Dempster could provide the Cubs' rotation with a solid back-end starter in 2005, when his Opening Day age will be only 28. It's clearly a gamble on a pitcher who hasn't pitched very well for a number of seasons, but in the end, the Cubs could end up drawing maybe not an ace, but at least a very competent 5th starter.
Let's score that run as a triple and an error
Yes, I know at the beginning of the post I said three topics, but there's one more I want to throw in. In a change from their usual format, ESPN has issued a series of analytical articles for this season's Hot Stove Heaters feature. If you aren't reading them on a regular basis, I urge you, as a loyal reader of Talking Baseball, to read the one ESPN posted yesterday. In it, Senior Writer of Baseball America Alan Schwarz wrote about the 8 most important stats used in baseball analysis today. Since the four of us here write using stats a lot, this article serves as a primer to decoding some of what we're talking about. Just follow this link and all of your questions about WHIP, Run Differential, and a few other key stats will be answered.
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###
As my oh-so-witty title suggests, I have three things for you all today. So without further ado, let me get started. Today marks the beginning of a new feature of the Talking Baseball blog. It's the part where I answer your e-mails. You see that link on the left of your screen? The one that says e-mail TalkingBaseball (a) hotmail.com? Well, that's where our readers, all 328 of you up to 1:10 a.m. on Thursday, January 22, 2004, should be e-mailing us. So opening our inbox, I see...hmmm...one message from Dave checking to make sure that the e-mail account was working properly, and nothing else. So I'm going to answer the e-mail.
Dave, yes, indeed, our e-mail address is working. No need to worry, my friend.
Phew, I'm glad I got that one off my chest. Seriously, dear reader, we want to hear from you. E-mail us your thoughts on how we're doing so far. Do you agree with us? Do you disagree? Do you like our four-man rotation? I know J.P. would; the Blue Jays pitchers, as they showed last spring, wouldn't be so keen on it. Furthermore, send us any topics you want us to tackle. We're certainly open to suggestions. We know you're out there, and we want to start hearing from you. Now on to the baseball...
Age before beauty, or baseball's Energizer battery finally stops
Wednesday was the end of an era for modern baseball. Iron man Jesse Orosco retired after 24 years of big league service. As this article shows, Orosco leaves baseball having pitched in a record 1,252 different regular season games (1,248 of them as a reliever) since debuting for the New York Mets in 1979. While he was signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks this winter to a minor league contract, the lefty will be turning 47 shortly after opening day, and who can really blame him for moving on?
Hopefully, Orosco will be remembered in baseball for many generations to come. Over the course of his career, Orosco threw 1295 innings for 9 different teams. Based on his career numbers, it's highly doubtful Orosco will make the Hall of Fame. He saved only 144 games in his career, compiled a W-L record of 88-80, had a career ERA of 3.16 and a career WHIP of 1.26. Yet, while his career stats are decidedly human and many starting pitchers throw more innings than Orosco did in his career, his career should not be any less revered. Orosco was able to carve a niche for himself that led to his playing on three teams this past season at the age of 46. His record of most career games pitched will be a tough one to reach with not too many pitchers pitching into their 40s. As the trend these days is to flame-throwing relievers like Billy Wagner, Troy Percival, and Mariano Rivera, these pitchers' bodies break down more easily. Orosco is some kind of marvel for our age.
While us Yankee fans, Red Sox fans, and Mets fans will remember Orosco as the one on the mound as the Red Sox lost game 7 of the 1986 World Series, he should remain with baseball outside of any petty rivalries. He's one the greatest iron horses in the history of the game, and his accomplishments must not be forgotten.
A Hidden Gem Among Aces
In glances over the headlines on ESPN.com in between deadlines for my college newspaper of which I am the editor, I noticed a story about the Cubs sort of sneak on to the Top Stories list. In the story--a fairly mundane one for the deadzone of the offseason--the AP reported that the Cubs signed Ryan Dempster to a one-year contract with a team option for 2005. Dempster, as you may recall, missed the last two months of the season with the Reds because he went in for ligament surgery. In much the same way that the Yankees have gambled with Jon Lieber recovering from major arm surgery, the Cubs are hoping for some luck with Dempster, who will probably pitch again in July or August. Yet, if this gamble turns out for the best, the Cubs could have landed themselves a major prize. If Dempster can regain his touch from the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, the Cubs could have cemented the NL Central for the next few years.
In 2000, Dempster was 14-10 with a 3.66 ERA, a really high 1.37 WHIP, and 209 K in just over 226 innings. If you want to get really technical, his numbers from that season look even better with positive values in the RAA column. (That just means he allowed fewer runs than the league average per inning. It's a stat to show, in essence, that his ERA was below the league average.) Even if Dempster pitches at his 2001 level, when he threw a 4.94 ERA, striking out 171 in 211 innings but with a very high WHIP of 1.56, the Cubs will still have found a more-than-adequate fifth starter.
Currently, the Cubs have Prior, Wood, Zambrano, and Clement as their top four starters, making them my pick as the team to beat in the NL Central. If they manage to add a rapidly aging Maddux, they'll just be that much better. But even so, I think Dempster could provide the Cubs' rotation with a solid back-end starter in 2005, when his Opening Day age will be only 28. It's clearly a gamble on a pitcher who hasn't pitched very well for a number of seasons, but in the end, the Cubs could end up drawing maybe not an ace, but at least a very competent 5th starter.
Let's score that run as a triple and an error
Yes, I know at the beginning of the post I said three topics, but there's one more I want to throw in. In a change from their usual format, ESPN has issued a series of analytical articles for this season's Hot Stove Heaters feature. If you aren't reading them on a regular basis, I urge you, as a loyal reader of Talking Baseball, to read the one ESPN posted yesterday. In it, Senior Writer of Baseball America Alan Schwarz wrote about the 8 most important stats used in baseball analysis today. Since the four of us here write using stats a lot, this article serves as a primer to decoding some of what we're talking about. Just follow this link and all of your questions about WHIP, Run Differential, and a few other key stats will be answered.
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###
Posted by Ben K. on Sunday, January 18, 2004
Overhyping the Astros and Pudge's trip to purgatory
Pencils ready everyone? Good, because it's time for a pop quiz.
Name the top five starting rotations in Major League Baseball heading into Spring Training 2004. Boston and the Yankees, you say? Good choices. One through five, these two teams appear to sport the best rotations in baseball. Mussina, Brown, Vazquez, Contreras, and Lieber are as qualified as any 5 and a rotation fronted by Schilling and Pedro with Lowe, Kim, and Wakefield backing up is nothing short of spectacular.
The A's? Of course, with the Big Three, plus a very promising Rich Harden and now Mark Redman, it's hard to go wrong with the Billy Beane's boys. How about the Cubs? Prior and Wood make this a force not to be reckoned with; Zambrano and Clement have huge upside, and talk of adding Greg Maddux must have Cubs fans thinking next year could finally end their curse.
So that brings me to number 5. And the point of my post. After reading Mike's post from yesterday (just scroll down--I'm too lazy to HTML the link in here), I decided that I did not agree that the Astros have the best rotation in baseball. Yes, they are vastly improved and have three frontline starters in Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt. They also have to worry the most about declines in the numbers Clemens and Pettitte will put up next season. According to the incredibly confusing stats over at Baseball Prospectus, Clemens and Pettitte both overachieved last year. Playing with a subpar defense and a superb offense, Roger and Andy both won more games than either should have. Now, they're going to be pitching for a team that may field better than the Yankees have recently, but won't give Clemens practically six runs a start and won't give Pettitte nearly seven runs per game.
The Astros should also be concerned that Pettitte fell two short of a career high for HR allowed in a single season. In 1996, Pettitte surrendered 23 HR while pitching 13 more innings. Last season, the Astros' pitchers gave up 16 more HR than Yankee pitchers, with 89 of their 161 HR coming at home. Pettitte, it seems is not primed for another 21-7 season. While this rotation could easily be the 5th best this season, it's been completely overhyped. I think Boston and New York are much better than the Astros. Within their own division, I think the Cubs are a better bet, pitching-wise, than Houston. In fact, I think the 5th best rotation won't be enough for Houston to make it to the Playoffs. I predict the Cubs to lead the Central; I think the Phillies will win the NL this year. Finally, don't count out Atlanta. Somehow, despite all of the naysayers, Bobby Cox and the Braves have won the East every year since the dawn of time. While the Phillies have been called by ESPN analysts the most improved team, Atlanta just won't every go away.
Houston will be relying on one of the premier setup men in Major League Baseball to close (Octavio Dotel) and a rotation that, while solid, will face many questions. The health of the five starters rests on shaky ground. But if Clemens' legs, Pettitte's elbow, Oswalt's entire body, the band box nature of that left field fence in Minute Maid Park, or a lack of production from the offense all become factors, the fans in Houston will be in for a very long summer.
------------
Changing the subject, I would like to give my two cents on Ivan Rodriguez and the rumors that he's going to sign with the Detroit Tigers. Yes, the same Tigers that lost 119 games last season, and yes, the same Ivan Rodriguez who was instrumental in the Marlins' winning the World Series. If this deal goes through, Pudge will sign for four years and $40 million with a team that has no future and no hope of being good before Pudge retires or becomes a free agent after the 2007 season. Yet, as hard as it is to believe, it looks like Ivan Rodriguez will be behind the plate in a Tigers uniform next season. Pudge will get a chance to play on some of the worst teams in the history of the game. He coulda been a contender; instead, he's ending up back on a team worse than the Texas Rangers. The next time he's a free agent, he'll be 36 and in the twilight of his career.
Of course, I don't feel pity for Pudge. He and Scott Boras, his greedy agent, got exactly what they deserve. (Of course, I'll eat my words if the deal doesn't go down, but it's looking quite likely these days). Pudge, a 32-year-old catcher with a history of injury, wanted his 10 mil a year for four years. He would be 36 years old at the end of his contract, well passed his catching prime. The Marlins, a team with young pitchers and a solid offense, offered him something in the neighborhood of 8 million a year. Pudge could stay on the team where he finally won a ring. He would lead the newly-named Miami Marlins through a few years in their glorious new ballpark in downtown Miami and he would be the hero of South Florida. But he couldn't deal with not getting those 2 million extra dollars.
Instead, he's signed up for a one-way trip to baseball hell. This is no cornfield on a farm in Iowa. He'll play on a Detroit team with Rondell White and Fernando Viña. The Tigers may have signed some new players this season, but they've poured their money into oft-injured fourth outfielders and backup infielders. They didn't sign pitching, their one sore spot. While Pudge might be a good choice to develop Bonderman and Maroth into something other than 20-game losers, he won't win. At all. Ever. For all of his years in Detroit. Is $2 million really worth 100 losses?
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###
Pencils ready everyone? Good, because it's time for a pop quiz.
Name the top five starting rotations in Major League Baseball heading into Spring Training 2004. Boston and the Yankees, you say? Good choices. One through five, these two teams appear to sport the best rotations in baseball. Mussina, Brown, Vazquez, Contreras, and Lieber are as qualified as any 5 and a rotation fronted by Schilling and Pedro with Lowe, Kim, and Wakefield backing up is nothing short of spectacular.
The A's? Of course, with the Big Three, plus a very promising Rich Harden and now Mark Redman, it's hard to go wrong with the Billy Beane's boys. How about the Cubs? Prior and Wood make this a force not to be reckoned with; Zambrano and Clement have huge upside, and talk of adding Greg Maddux must have Cubs fans thinking next year could finally end their curse.
So that brings me to number 5. And the point of my post. After reading Mike's post from yesterday (just scroll down--I'm too lazy to HTML the link in here), I decided that I did not agree that the Astros have the best rotation in baseball. Yes, they are vastly improved and have three frontline starters in Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt. They also have to worry the most about declines in the numbers Clemens and Pettitte will put up next season. According to the incredibly confusing stats over at Baseball Prospectus, Clemens and Pettitte both overachieved last year. Playing with a subpar defense and a superb offense, Roger and Andy both won more games than either should have. Now, they're going to be pitching for a team that may field better than the Yankees have recently, but won't give Clemens practically six runs a start and won't give Pettitte nearly seven runs per game.
The Astros should also be concerned that Pettitte fell two short of a career high for HR allowed in a single season. In 1996, Pettitte surrendered 23 HR while pitching 13 more innings. Last season, the Astros' pitchers gave up 16 more HR than Yankee pitchers, with 89 of their 161 HR coming at home. Pettitte, it seems is not primed for another 21-7 season. While this rotation could easily be the 5th best this season, it's been completely overhyped. I think Boston and New York are much better than the Astros. Within their own division, I think the Cubs are a better bet, pitching-wise, than Houston. In fact, I think the 5th best rotation won't be enough for Houston to make it to the Playoffs. I predict the Cubs to lead the Central; I think the Phillies will win the NL this year. Finally, don't count out Atlanta. Somehow, despite all of the naysayers, Bobby Cox and the Braves have won the East every year since the dawn of time. While the Phillies have been called by ESPN analysts the most improved team, Atlanta just won't every go away.
Houston will be relying on one of the premier setup men in Major League Baseball to close (Octavio Dotel) and a rotation that, while solid, will face many questions. The health of the five starters rests on shaky ground. But if Clemens' legs, Pettitte's elbow, Oswalt's entire body, the band box nature of that left field fence in Minute Maid Park, or a lack of production from the offense all become factors, the fans in Houston will be in for a very long summer.
------------
Changing the subject, I would like to give my two cents on Ivan Rodriguez and the rumors that he's going to sign with the Detroit Tigers. Yes, the same Tigers that lost 119 games last season, and yes, the same Ivan Rodriguez who was instrumental in the Marlins' winning the World Series. If this deal goes through, Pudge will sign for four years and $40 million with a team that has no future and no hope of being good before Pudge retires or becomes a free agent after the 2007 season. Yet, as hard as it is to believe, it looks like Ivan Rodriguez will be behind the plate in a Tigers uniform next season. Pudge will get a chance to play on some of the worst teams in the history of the game. He coulda been a contender; instead, he's ending up back on a team worse than the Texas Rangers. The next time he's a free agent, he'll be 36 and in the twilight of his career.
Of course, I don't feel pity for Pudge. He and Scott Boras, his greedy agent, got exactly what they deserve. (Of course, I'll eat my words if the deal doesn't go down, but it's looking quite likely these days). Pudge, a 32-year-old catcher with a history of injury, wanted his 10 mil a year for four years. He would be 36 years old at the end of his contract, well passed his catching prime. The Marlins, a team with young pitchers and a solid offense, offered him something in the neighborhood of 8 million a year. Pudge could stay on the team where he finally won a ring. He would lead the newly-named Miami Marlins through a few years in their glorious new ballpark in downtown Miami and he would be the hero of South Florida. But he couldn't deal with not getting those 2 million extra dollars.
Instead, he's signed up for a one-way trip to baseball hell. This is no cornfield on a farm in Iowa. He'll play on a Detroit team with Rondell White and Fernando Viña. The Tigers may have signed some new players this season, but they've poured their money into oft-injured fourth outfielders and backup infielders. They didn't sign pitching, their one sore spot. While Pudge might be a good choice to develop Bonderman and Maroth into something other than 20-game losers, he won't win. At all. Ever. For all of his years in Detroit. Is $2 million really worth 100 losses?
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###