Posted by Ben K. on Saturday, March 27, 2004
2004 Season Preview, Part III
Before I begin my season preview, I would like to direct your attention to a few articles on ESPN.com. A few hours ago, the Yankees and Devil Rays landed in Japan to start their Opening Day trip through the Far West. Having flown over 7,000 miles from their Spring Training complexes, players on both teams had the joy of missing Friday completely this week. Jayson Stark and Bob Klapisch yesterday presented the two sides of the debate.
On the one hand, Stark wrote an elegant piece from the players' points of view, saying that the fact that these games actually count is ludicrous. The jet lag is ridiculous, and it is a situation in which 28 other teams do not find themselves. In fact, those 28 other teams enjoy more days for Spring Training exhibition games and more days for pitchers to tune up. I won't rehash the entire argument. Just click here: Way too Far East, by Jayson Stark
On the other side, Klapisch sat down with Yankees GM Brian Cashman to discuss the economics of the trip. From an international marketing point of view, clearly this trip is good. MLB and the Yankees get widespread exposure in Japan, thus increasing sales of baseball memorabilia. It's also good for the international image of Major League Baseball if they spread the game across nature barriers such as the ocean. For Klapisch's argument, click here: History in the Making, by Bob Klapisch
Personally, I think it's a little crazy for these two teams to fly half way around the globe and suffer the consequences of jet lag and fewer Spring Training games just to play two regular season games in Japan. If they want to open Spring Training there, so be it. But for Alex Rodriguez to be making his Yankee debut at 5:07 a.m. on the YES Network instead of 8 p.m on ESPN makes it seem as though Major League Baseball is forsaking its home fans for better international coverage. Baseball has been under a lot of pressure to improve its marketability. It lags far behind in basketball and football in that category. While this trip to Japan may enhance baseball's image in Japan, it certainly doesn't help build its popularity in the States.
Now, on to Part III of the Spring Preview. If you missed Parts I or II, follow these links:
Spring Preview, Part I
Spring Preview, Part II
If you don't want to read about every league and simply care about the league in which your favorite team plays, follow one of these links:
National League East
National League Central
National League West
American League Central
American League East
American League West
American League Central
1. Chicago White Sox — The American League Central, is hands down, the worst league in professional baseball this year. The stars are either on the way out (Frank Thomas, age 36) or will be starting this year (Ivan Rodriguez, age 32, 13,076 innings behind the plate). While there are some rising stars (Jeremy Reed, Joe Mauer), this is a thin league. As such, I think any of the top four teams could win the division. However, I'm going to pick the White Sox, just because no one else has. Under first-year manager Carlos Guillen, the White Sox did not make any large off-season moves and did lose Bartolo Colon, Tom Gordon, and Carl Everett. But this team has a strong rotation with Esteban Loaiza and Mark Buehrle up front and Jon Garland, Scott Schoenweiss, and Danny Wright on the back end. If Billy Koch can undo 2003 and return to 2002 form, the White Sox will have a decent bullpen to compliment a solid offense.
Obvious story line: Pitching is what will deliver the Central for the White Sox. Last year, Loaiza was a surprise, winning more than 11 games for the first time in his career. And he did it in fashion too, racking up 21 wins to go along with a 2.90 ERA and 207 strike outs. Behind him, Mark Buehrle was 2-10 with a 5.18 ERA on June 10 before he went on to win 12 of his last 16 decisions. If Loaiza is for real and Buehrle's hot streak continues on into 2004, the White Sox should be looking down at the rest of the Central.
Interesting story line: In 2002, Paul Konerko hit .304/.359/.498 with 27 HR and 104 RBI. Last year, he hit .234/.305/.399 with 18 home runs and 65 runs batted in. He hit only .187 off of left-handers and .327 off of right-handers. Konerko see pitches to hit this year, and for the White Sox to score runs Konerko will have to do much better than his 2003 average of .218 with runners in scoring position. If he doesn't shake off 2003, the White Sox will have a gaping black hole of offense in their lineup.
Prospect to watch: Last year, Aaron Rowand hit .287/.327/.452 while prospect Jeremy Reed hit .409/.474/.591 in half a season at AA. The White Sox feel that Reed needs more time, and he'll be starting the season at AAA. Rowand, on the other hand, will have one more chance to win a starting job or at least prove he's trade bait. Reed will be in Chicago before Rowand realizes it. For more on Reed, check out Dave's last post.
2. Minnesota Twins — The Twins are trying the Seattle Mariners approach to improving. When the Mariners lost Ken Griffey, Randy Johnson, and Alex Rodriguez, they managed to win 116 games. This winter, the Twins lost closer Eddie Guardado, set-up man LaTroy Hawkins, catcher A.J. Pierzynski, outfielder Dustin Mohr, and starting pitchers Eric Milton and Rick Reed. This year, they're relying on über-hyped prospect Joe Mauer, reliever Joe Nathan, and newcomer Rick Helling to fill the gaps. Unfortunately for the Twins, Helling was hit in the leg by a line drive, and his leg broke. Ouch, big time. So the Twins will start the season (and play to the end of May) with an unproven fifth starter. While their lineup will be about as good as last season with Shannon Stewart anchoring for the entire season, the pitching looks shaky. Brad Radke, Johan Santana (back from surgery), Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva, and someone else will start. Joe Nathan and his one career save will close with J.C. Romero to set up and not much else behind him. I think the Twins will get the second slot, but only because the Royals and Indians won't.
Obvious story line: Joe Mauer. That's it. I'm sick of hearing about him. Go watch the Twins. He's Baseball America's number 1 prospect, drafting the same year as Mark Prior, and he could be one of the best catchers all time. I can't wait to see him, but there's no need to write any more about him here. It's all been said to death throughout the baseball blog world.
Much more interesting story line: Joe Nathan had a good season last year. He threw 79 innings, striking out 83 while surrendering only 51 hits. He had a 2.96 ERA last year, but was 0 for 3 in save opportunities. In October, he pitched 0.1 innings and gave up 4 hits and 3 runs and earned a blown save, costing the Giants a game in the NLDS. Nathan's one career save came on May 16, 1999, when he was the only player left in the bullpen during an extra-inning game between the Giants and the Astros. Nen recorded the win; Nathan the save. For the Twins to win, Nathan will have to show he can close. While Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system is predicting an ERA over 5.00 for Nathan this year, the Twins may see a lot of defeats snatched from the jaws of victory this year.
More interesting prospect: First baseman Justin Morneau will be in the starting lineup this season. While Morneau will start the season at AAA, he's a better hitter than Doug Mientkiewicz. The guys over at Prospectus think Morneau will be the next Fred McGriff when McGriff was in his prime and healthy. Baseball America, which ranked Morneau at 16 on their top 100 prospects list, agrees. I can't wait to see him just as soon as the Twins think he's ready. I predict by June or July.
3. Kansas City Royals — A little over two weeks ago, I wrote about how many baseball analysts are picking the Royals to be this year's equivalent of the 2002 Angels or the 2003 Marlins. I don't buy it. As I wrote in that post, I don't think the Royals have nearly the same level of talent that the Angels or Marlins had. The pitching isn't there, and the offense is certainly not there. Since I just wrote so recently on my prediction for the Royals, I'm not going to repeat my argument here. If you want like to read about it, it can be found here: why the Royals won't win the 2004 World Series. All I have to say is that it is possible for the Royals to win this division because, as I've said, this is a very mediocre division.
Obvious story line: The last time Juan Gonzalez drove in over 100 runs, the year was 2001. The Yankees had yet to fall to fall victim to a dinky pop up off of the bat of Luis Gonzalez, and I was a freshman in college. Now, I'm a junior, and the Yankees will go into 2004 with a payroll equivalent to some small countries' GDP. In 2001, Gonzalez drove in 140 runs. Since then, Gonzalez has managed to drive in just 105 runs combined over the last two seasons. During these last two years, Juan has played in only 152 games. Juan has been Gone much more frequently from the lineup than the Rangers would have liked. For the Royals to come anywhere close to October or a division title, Gonzalez will have to play a big role in kick starting the offense. While he could be a presence in this lineup, already his calf is hurting him. For this reason (and others articulated in the March 11 post), I simply can't pick the Royals to come anywhere close to a divisional title or a World Series appearance.
Interesting story line: (This one courtesy of Athlon Sports.) Darrell May has pitched 4.08.1 innings in his career, surrendering 71 home runs in the process. He is currently the active leader in most home runs allowed in a career of fewer than 425 innings pitched. Can he continue this astounding rate? Stay tuned to Kansas City Royals baseball to find out.
Old guy who was named in the BALCO incident to watch: Benito Santiago was one of those named a few weeks ago during the steroid witch hunts. This guy looks older than the Grand Canyon, and at age 39, he has caught over 15,000 innings in his career. I'm sure some people out there would attribute his longevity to steroid use. I will give him the benefit of the doubt, but if this steroid mess heats up over the summer, Santiago will feel that pressure, as he was already one of the named.
4. Cleveland Indians — I'm going to be frank with you right now: I don't know too much about the Indians. Of all 30 teams, I'm probably least familiar with the Indians and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mainly, that's because except for Mr. Board Game, Milton Bradley, and C.C. Sabathia, there are fewer names worth knowing on a team that is rushing prospects in order to field a Major League team. The Indians' rotation will feature Sabathia, maybe Jeff D'Amico, and a lot of no name guys who probably shouldn't be pitching in the Bigs. They will have to rely on Jose Jimenez to close now that Bob Wickman's out for a few months, and the rest of the bullpen is David Riske. The lineup will be good, but just not this year. Jody Gerut is a bright spot, but right now, most of these guys are place-holders until the Indians' very rich farm system ripens. When Grady Sizemore (OF) and Jeremy Guthrie (RHP) arrive in 2005, the Indians will then become a fun team to watch and an immediate contender in the Central.
Obvious story line: There are none. Well, wait. This is a stretch, but if the Tigers have a miraculous season, the Indians could be facing the cellar of the AL Central. Conversely, if a few key prospects mature quickly, the Indians could actually be in a position to make a run for the division title. While I think the former is a safer bet, in a division of mediocrity, the field is indeed wide open.
Interesting story line: The Bill James 2004 handbook lists the team's ace C.C. Sabathia at 270 pounds. That's quite a lot. In fact, for the Indians, that's too much. The team wishes he wouldn't put on the pounds so quickly. While he is still a major risk for injuries, feeling discomfort in his elbow last season, he has somehow managed to avoid serious injury. Food poisoning, that's a different story. Sabathia showed what he is capable of as he posted a 3.60 ERA last season, and the Indians would love to see that again.
Cereal to watch: Cleveland outfielder Coco Crisp is tearing up the Cactus League. He's hitting .404 and slugging .532 in 47 at-bats. Crisp could end up in the outfield alongside Milton Bradley. Now, if only the Indians could find Scott Tissue or Johnson & Johnson, they would have the best corporate outfield in the game.
5. Detroit Tigers — Last year, the Tigers were bad, 119 losses bad. To be that bad, everything has to click at the same time, just in the wrong direction, and for the Tigers, it did. They gave up 928 runs, the second most in the majors, and scored only 591, the second least in the majors. As a team, they hit .240/.300/.375 while their opponents steamrolled them with a .286/.350/.461 line. No one on the team reached .300 or the 100-RBI plateau. On the pitching side, they had a team ERA of 5.30 and managed just 4.78 strikeouts per 9 innings. On September 5, Mike Maroth became the first pitcher in 23 years to lose 20 games. He would end the season with 21 losses. But he was hardly alone. Jeremy Bonderman lost 19 games, and Nate Cornejo lost 17. To make matters worse, the Tigers' bullpen converted only 27 out of 46 save opportunities, and no pitcher recorded more than five saves.
With a season like 2003, General Manager Dave Dombrowski knew he had to improve the team somehow so that the fans wouldn't start deserting the team in droves. So during the off-season, he went out and revamped the lineup. He acquired Rondell White, Fernando Viña, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlos Guillen. While Viña only played in 60 games last year, these four combined scored 250 runs. Already, the Tigers' offense is looking improved, but this team still has a long way to go. Their rotation will still include Cornejo, Maroth, and Bonderman, and these three will be joined by Jason Johnson who has a career 4.91 ERA and a 36-58 record in seven seasons. The bullpen, now anchored by recent addition Ugueth Urbina, will be slightly improved, but this team is on thin ice. Viña, White, and Pudge all have a history of injury, and the bullpen upgrades are only upgrades because the team was so bad last year. It's true the Tigers could turn it around this year, but I think another 90- to 100-loss season is on the way.
Obvious story line: How many games will this team lose? As I detailed back in February, no team has gone from losing over 110 games one year to a .500 season the next year. The best improvement was 32.5 games with the average improvement only 16.5 games. While no team in history has enjoyed the same level of improvement on paper as the Tigers did this off-season, it's unlikely that the pitching in Detroit will improve by more than 30 games. And 30 games would only put Detroit at 73-89, still not a stellar season.
Interesting story line:Will the real Ugueth Urbina please stand up? In Florida, during the second half of 2003, Urbina was nearly unhittable. He had a 1.41 ERA and struck out 37 while surrendering just 23 hits, all in 38.1 innings. In Texas, during the first half of 2003, Urbina was definitely hittable. He sported a 4.19 ERA while striking out 41 and giving up 33 hits in, surprisingly enough, 38.2 innings. So either Urbina had a really rough one-third of an inning in Texas last year, or he was motivated by landing on a contender in time for the stretch drive. If the latter is the case, I can't understand Urbina's reasons for signing with Detroit when he had been offered other contracts. We all know Urbina was willing to sit out the 2004 season over money, and this looks like another case of a player ending up in Detroit because they are willing to overpay players in order to prove to the fans that they are committed to improving. I don't think the Florida Marlins version of Ugueth Urbina will be anywhere near Comerica Park this summer.
Contract clause to watch: Pudge's new contract has an interesting clause: If Rodriguez is on the DL for more than 35 days in 2004 or 2005, the Tigers can void the rest of the deal. The same holds true for 2006. This is believed to be the first non-guaranteed contract in MLB history, and it will be interesting to see how Pudge holds up. If his chronically-injured back starts aching, he may opt to play. A trip to the DL could cost Rodriguez nearly $20 million.
American League East
1. Toront...Just kidding. New York Yankees — Despite my allegiances, this is no easy pick. The Red Sox have as best a pitching staff as they've had in recent years, and their lineup is very impressive too, even with Pokey Reese occupying second base. The Yankees, on the other hand, are better. Here's the lineup they will probably send out their when they return from Japan:
1. Kenny Lofton
2. Derek Jeter
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Gary Sheffield
5. Jason Giambi
6. Jorge Posada
7. Hideki Matsui
8. Bernie Williams
9. Enrique Wilson
Their starting four are equally impressive. Five is a big giant question mark.
1. Mike Mussina
1a. Kevin Brown
1c. Javier Vazquez
4. Jose Contreras
5. Donovan Osbourne/Jon Lieber
The bullpen is great, too.
Paul Quantrill
Tom Gordon
Felix Heredia
Gabe White
Steve Karsay (mid-June)
Mariano Rivera
It's absurd. Even as a big fan, I think it's getting way out of hand. But at the same time, Baseball Prospectus rightly applauds Steinbrenner for spending the money the team is making. Owners like Carl Pohland and Wendy Selig pocket any profits, while George just keeps reinvesting in his team. If he has it, he should spend it, and it's up to Major League Baseball to adjust their system to make it work. And as we all know, anything short of a World Series title (which is no guarantee) will bring ruin upon the heads of the Yankees as King George will smite them upon a mountainside. Well, maybe it won't be so melodramatic, but you get the point. And yes, I know that avoiding injuries are a big part of the Yankees' predicted success this season. But in writing a season preview, all I can do is say watch Kevin Brown's arm and Gary Sheffield's thumb and Jason Giambi's knees. That's it. I can't predict if and when they'll get injured.
Way too obvious story line: Talent vs. Egos. This team has an abundant amount of talent. This team also has an abundant amount of ego. Which will win out? Find out next time on Ego-ography, only on the YES Network. For the Yankees to win, clearly talent will have to win out. But with A-Rod, Kevin Brown, and Sheffield all in one clubhouse and all serving under Captain Jeter, things could get messy if the Yankees start losing games during the dog days of August. This year, more than ever, Joe Torre will have to serve as a diplomat in the clubhouse as he manages egos on the field.
Interesting story line: Many people feel that Hideki Matsui is either overrated or he underperformed last year. Some people see his endless groundballs during the first half as an indication of a need to adjust to new pitching while others see his 107 RBIs as indicative of the people in front of him in the lineup. If all goes according to plan in the Bronx Zoo, Matsui should see this RBI total increase, thus confusing his critics even more. I believe that Matsui will be a better power hitter from the get-go this season, and as he'll have A-Rod, Sheffield, Giambi, and Posada in front of him, he'll see more pitches in the strike zone. Amidst a lineup of All Stars, I would expect a monster season from Godzilla, thus silencing the critics.
Cable channel to watch: For millions of New Yorkers, the premium tag has been lifted for the YES Network. No longer will people like my good friend Sabeel be forced to listen to John Sterling and Charlie Steiner to get their Yankee fix. The battle between Cablevisions — the company responsible for the sorry state of the Knicks and Rangers — and the Yankee ownership ended this week, and millions of Americans breathed a collective "finally" as everyone was sick of this story.
2. Boston Red Sox — On the pitching front, the Red Sox are as strong as the Yankees. They'll be throwing Pedro, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and Byung-Hyun Kim with Keith Foulke, Scott Williamson, Mike Timlin, and Alan Embree providing for a strong bullpen. The Red Sox problems are already revealing themselves as Trot Nixon is out until the end of May, thus exposing the offense and defense to some problems. Nomar, too, may miss some time, and Bill Mueller is experiencing some elbow discomfort. While the Yankees have yet to face the injury bug, the Red Sox are seeing it up close and personal during Spring Training. Red Sox Nation is hoping that the Sox players are just experience normal preseason pains, but if more Red Sox go down, their offense is much less potent than it seems.
Obvious story lines: The Red Sox have a lot of high-profile free agents on their hands. Nomar, Pedro, Trot, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek and Scott Williamson will all be free agents, and already Nomar and Pedro have made public their feelings. Nomar has never been thrilled with Red Sox management, and I don't think Red Sox management was too thrilled with his .203 combined September and October batting average, let along his strike outs in the postseason. Pedro will want more money than he's worth at this point in his career, and he's already said he would be willing to sign with the Yankees. If you thought Boggs of Clemens in pinstripes was a blow to New England, only imagine how the Red Sox fans will feel if Pedro were trotting out to the mound in the Bronx every fifth day. This season could be a rocky one in the press as these high-profile Red Sox fight to show their worth to the Boston brass. Red Sox Nation is certainly hoping for career years from all of them.
Interesting story line: Manny Ramirez was traded this winter for Alex Rodriguez. But then the deal fell through. While Boston fans deride Manny for his lack of enthusiasm, he has .335 over the last two seasons, tops in the AL. As long as Manny continues to produce, Red Sox fans should embrace him as the All Star he is. In the meantime, I'll continue to be very scared of him every time he bats against the Yankees. He is after all a Yankee killer.
Velocity to watch: Scouts say the velocity on Pedro's fastball is down. Pedro says he's ok. Analysts say Pedro doesn't need to rely on high velocity because he's a smarter pitcher now. It'll be interesting to see what happens to Pedro over the course of this season. Is this the year his arm finally caves in to that frayed rotator cuff? If Pedro wants his big contract, he better hope not. But with him, you never know.
3. Toronto Blue Jays — When the Yankees and Red Sox are decimated by injuries this summer, the Blue Jays will win the East. At least, that's what some people are thinking, and to tell you the truth, it's not an impossibility. Last season, the Jays scored 895 runs, best for third in the Majors, and there's no reason they can't do it again this year. Led by the reigning MVP Carlos Delgado and eventual-MVP Vernon Wells, the Jays lineup packs a punch. If Eric Hinske can regain his 2002 form, this lineup will be downright potent. On the flip side, the Blue Jays have Roy Halladay, Miguel Batista, and that's about it. There are no definite go-to guys in the bullpen, and Ted Lilly was less than impressive as he threw a career-high 178.2 innings for Oakland last year. I've always thought that Lilly is due for a shoulder injury because he throws across his body in a very awkward motion. For the Blue Jays to have a serious shot at the title, J.P. Ricciardi will have to pick up some bullpen help. Otherwise, Toronto will be looking up at Boston and New York yet again.
Obvious story line: If the Blue Jays finish third and Boston second, with the D-Rays and Baltimore finishing as I predict, this will be the seventh year in a row with the same finish, one through five, in any league. Already, the AL East holds the record for most consecutive years of the same. This year, though, the spread could be smaller.
Interesting story line: Who's going to catch for Toronto? Due for arrival in 2005 is Guillermo Quiroz. He can hit and has shown great defensive prowess. While he won't be as good as Joe Mauer, most analysts feel he'll hit for more power than Mauer ever will. In the meantime, Kevin Cash will get the job this year. While he threw out 26 percent of all base runners last season, he managed to hit .142 with 8 RBIs in 106 at bats. The Blue Jays' lineup can compensate for this lack of offense, but if Quiroz, ranked 35 by Baseball America, shows he's ready, Cash may be out of a job by mid-June.
Why the Blue Jays won't win the East: Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they have to play the Yankees and the Red Sox 19 times each for a total of 38 games against two of the best teams in history (barring injuries). Even if Halladay pitches one of the games every series against these two teams, the Blue Jays are still overmatched by the Yankees' and Red Sox' pitchers. In a few years, though, when age catches up with New York and Boston, the Jays will emerge as the team to beat in the East. In the meantime, the Blue Jays just hope the fans keep coming to the SkyDome.
4. Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles spent a lot of money this off-season, but they spent it in all the wrong places. Miguel Tejada is a sold investment, but Baltimore overpaid for Javy Lopez. Palmeiro is no longer the impact player he once was, and Sydney Ponson is the only pitcher holding the Orioles' rotation together now that Rodrigo Lopez's Spring Training has shown his one decent season was an utter fluke. The bullpen, consisting of Jorge Julio, Mike DeJean, Buddy Groom, and B.J. Ryan, is basically made up entirely of guys who would mop up on any decent team. While on the surface the Orioles appear to have improved, on the field, this team is destined to fail. And after seeing their pitchers get lit up during two Spring Training games a few weeks ago, I truly believe this team has no pitching staff to back up an offense that will score more runs than last year. The Orioles continue to be a lesson in unwise spending.
Obvious story line: In a pitchers' park, Tejada's career numbers are pretty impressive. He has a line of .270/.331/.460 with 156 HR and 604 RBI. While the move to Camden Yards won't inflate his power numbers, he now has to deal with facing the Yankees and the Red Sox a combined 38 times this season. That means, he'll be facing pitching far superior to anything the Mariners, Angels, or Rangers have been throwing at him the past seven years. For Tejada to justify the large contract, he'll have to excel against the big guns of the East. While he's been a Yankee-killer of late, hitting .327 with 26 home runs in 104 at bats over three seasons, it will be interesting to see how he responds to increased exposure to the Yankees' staff. (As a side note: Against Boston, Tejada has hit his averages. In 100 at bats, he's hit .280 with only 12 RBIs.)
Interesting story line: Who will pitch for Baltimore? After extolling the virtues of the rotations in Boston and New York, fans from other parts of the country may think I'm ridiculing the Orioles. That, however, is not my intention. Baltimore is faced with a serious problem that could turn the 2004 season into a very long one, indeed. So far, during the spring, Ponson has given up 5 HR and 24 hits in 21 innings while walking 10. He's the clear-cut ace of the Orioles' staff, and if he struggles, there's no one else to pick up the slack.
Pitcher to watch: The early indications from Fort Lauderdale are that Kurt Ainsworth may be the one to save the Orioles' rotation. In 16.1 innings this spring, he's allowed only 4 ER. While Ainsworth could be a pleasant surprise for Baltimore, he can't be expected to carry the rotation. Sir Sydney is going to have to step it up, but Kurt's season could make for a nice story.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays — The Devil Rays have an interesting mixture of young talent and way over-the-hill veterans in the lineup this season. While everyone is expecting the Devil Rays to improve, no one should be expecting them to surprise the East and edge out Baltimore for that fourth spot. Make no mistake, this team is still expected to land fifth. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli should continue to improve, and the rotation is filled with live young arms. With the editions of Rey Sanchez and Tino Martinez, the pressure may be off manager Lou Piniella. He could turn to the veterans for leadership. But knowing Piniella and his temper, it's unlikely. As long as Sweet Lou isn't expecting too much this season, this young ballclub could begin to show some life, seven years after its inaugural season.
Obvious story line: Delmon Young, all of 18 years old, was the first round pick of the D-Rays last year. In the Arizona Fall League, he hit .417, a preview of things to come from Dmitri's younger and more talented brother. He and shortstop B.J. Upton are ranked 3 and 2 respectively on the Baseball American top 100 prospects list, and the future is a little brighter for Tampa Bay and their fans with these young prospects on the horizon.
Interesting story line: The Devil Rays averaged 13,070 fans per game last year, good for 29th in the Bigs. They were at a league-low 28.9 percent occupancy, and while the baseball world may see relatively better days for the Devil Rays, the casually fans won't be coming to the park in droves this year. If the D-Rays don't reverse their attendance trends, this team may be facing an economic crisis in the very near future.
Designated Hitter to watch: A few weeks ago, I performed a rudimentary statistically analysis in an effort to build evidence for my hypothesis that when players DH, they are not as focused on the game and thus hitting for lower average and less power. During this analysis, I found that Aubrey Huff last season was better at DH than at first base, but he really excelled when he was in the outfield. In 390 outfield at bats, Huff hit .328/.375/.590. While the arrival of Tino Martinez means that Huff won't be at first this year, it's looking like Piniella will use Huff as his DH. In my opinion, this is a mistake. Last year, Huff hit .311 with 34 HR and 107 RBIs, effectively winning the Devil Rays' Triple Crown. By assigning him to be the fulltime DH, the Rays may actually lose some production from their most established player.
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Well, that's it, folks. If you've made it this far, pat yourself on the back. As always, these are just my opinions on the 30 teams, and this preview is in no way complete or definitive. I'm just a fan with my own opinions. Leave me some feedback; I would love to hear what you, our readers, feel about my predictions, and I would love to hear what your predictions are as well. Excitingly enough, my next post will come after the start of the 2004 regular season, and I promise you that you'll have my thoughts on the first Yankee game of the season.
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Before I begin my season preview, I would like to direct your attention to a few articles on ESPN.com. A few hours ago, the Yankees and Devil Rays landed in Japan to start their Opening Day trip through the Far West. Having flown over 7,000 miles from their Spring Training complexes, players on both teams had the joy of missing Friday completely this week. Jayson Stark and Bob Klapisch yesterday presented the two sides of the debate.
On the one hand, Stark wrote an elegant piece from the players' points of view, saying that the fact that these games actually count is ludicrous. The jet lag is ridiculous, and it is a situation in which 28 other teams do not find themselves. In fact, those 28 other teams enjoy more days for Spring Training exhibition games and more days for pitchers to tune up. I won't rehash the entire argument. Just click here: Way too Far East, by Jayson Stark
On the other side, Klapisch sat down with Yankees GM Brian Cashman to discuss the economics of the trip. From an international marketing point of view, clearly this trip is good. MLB and the Yankees get widespread exposure in Japan, thus increasing sales of baseball memorabilia. It's also good for the international image of Major League Baseball if they spread the game across nature barriers such as the ocean. For Klapisch's argument, click here: History in the Making, by Bob Klapisch
Personally, I think it's a little crazy for these two teams to fly half way around the globe and suffer the consequences of jet lag and fewer Spring Training games just to play two regular season games in Japan. If they want to open Spring Training there, so be it. But for Alex Rodriguez to be making his Yankee debut at 5:07 a.m. on the YES Network instead of 8 p.m on ESPN makes it seem as though Major League Baseball is forsaking its home fans for better international coverage. Baseball has been under a lot of pressure to improve its marketability. It lags far behind in basketball and football in that category. While this trip to Japan may enhance baseball's image in Japan, it certainly doesn't help build its popularity in the States.
Now, on to Part III of the Spring Preview. If you missed Parts I or II, follow these links:
Spring Preview, Part I
Spring Preview, Part II
If you don't want to read about every league and simply care about the league in which your favorite team plays, follow one of these links:
National League East
National League Central
National League West
American League Central
American League East
American League West
American League Central
1. Chicago White Sox — The American League Central, is hands down, the worst league in professional baseball this year. The stars are either on the way out (Frank Thomas, age 36) or will be starting this year (Ivan Rodriguez, age 32, 13,076 innings behind the plate). While there are some rising stars (Jeremy Reed, Joe Mauer), this is a thin league. As such, I think any of the top four teams could win the division. However, I'm going to pick the White Sox, just because no one else has. Under first-year manager Carlos Guillen, the White Sox did not make any large off-season moves and did lose Bartolo Colon, Tom Gordon, and Carl Everett. But this team has a strong rotation with Esteban Loaiza and Mark Buehrle up front and Jon Garland, Scott Schoenweiss, and Danny Wright on the back end. If Billy Koch can undo 2003 and return to 2002 form, the White Sox will have a decent bullpen to compliment a solid offense.
Obvious story line: Pitching is what will deliver the Central for the White Sox. Last year, Loaiza was a surprise, winning more than 11 games for the first time in his career. And he did it in fashion too, racking up 21 wins to go along with a 2.90 ERA and 207 strike outs. Behind him, Mark Buehrle was 2-10 with a 5.18 ERA on June 10 before he went on to win 12 of his last 16 decisions. If Loaiza is for real and Buehrle's hot streak continues on into 2004, the White Sox should be looking down at the rest of the Central.
Interesting story line: In 2002, Paul Konerko hit .304/.359/.498 with 27 HR and 104 RBI. Last year, he hit .234/.305/.399 with 18 home runs and 65 runs batted in. He hit only .187 off of left-handers and .327 off of right-handers. Konerko see pitches to hit this year, and for the White Sox to score runs Konerko will have to do much better than his 2003 average of .218 with runners in scoring position. If he doesn't shake off 2003, the White Sox will have a gaping black hole of offense in their lineup.
Prospect to watch: Last year, Aaron Rowand hit .287/.327/.452 while prospect Jeremy Reed hit .409/.474/.591 in half a season at AA. The White Sox feel that Reed needs more time, and he'll be starting the season at AAA. Rowand, on the other hand, will have one more chance to win a starting job or at least prove he's trade bait. Reed will be in Chicago before Rowand realizes it. For more on Reed, check out Dave's last post.
2. Minnesota Twins — The Twins are trying the Seattle Mariners approach to improving. When the Mariners lost Ken Griffey, Randy Johnson, and Alex Rodriguez, they managed to win 116 games. This winter, the Twins lost closer Eddie Guardado, set-up man LaTroy Hawkins, catcher A.J. Pierzynski, outfielder Dustin Mohr, and starting pitchers Eric Milton and Rick Reed. This year, they're relying on über-hyped prospect Joe Mauer, reliever Joe Nathan, and newcomer Rick Helling to fill the gaps. Unfortunately for the Twins, Helling was hit in the leg by a line drive, and his leg broke. Ouch, big time. So the Twins will start the season (and play to the end of May) with an unproven fifth starter. While their lineup will be about as good as last season with Shannon Stewart anchoring for the entire season, the pitching looks shaky. Brad Radke, Johan Santana (back from surgery), Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva, and someone else will start. Joe Nathan and his one career save will close with J.C. Romero to set up and not much else behind him. I think the Twins will get the second slot, but only because the Royals and Indians won't.
Obvious story line: Joe Mauer. That's it. I'm sick of hearing about him. Go watch the Twins. He's Baseball America's number 1 prospect, drafting the same year as Mark Prior, and he could be one of the best catchers all time. I can't wait to see him, but there's no need to write any more about him here. It's all been said to death throughout the baseball blog world.
Much more interesting story line: Joe Nathan had a good season last year. He threw 79 innings, striking out 83 while surrendering only 51 hits. He had a 2.96 ERA last year, but was 0 for 3 in save opportunities. In October, he pitched 0.1 innings and gave up 4 hits and 3 runs and earned a blown save, costing the Giants a game in the NLDS. Nathan's one career save came on May 16, 1999, when he was the only player left in the bullpen during an extra-inning game between the Giants and the Astros. Nen recorded the win; Nathan the save. For the Twins to win, Nathan will have to show he can close. While Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system is predicting an ERA over 5.00 for Nathan this year, the Twins may see a lot of defeats snatched from the jaws of victory this year.
More interesting prospect: First baseman Justin Morneau will be in the starting lineup this season. While Morneau will start the season at AAA, he's a better hitter than Doug Mientkiewicz. The guys over at Prospectus think Morneau will be the next Fred McGriff when McGriff was in his prime and healthy. Baseball America, which ranked Morneau at 16 on their top 100 prospects list, agrees. I can't wait to see him just as soon as the Twins think he's ready. I predict by June or July.
3. Kansas City Royals — A little over two weeks ago, I wrote about how many baseball analysts are picking the Royals to be this year's equivalent of the 2002 Angels or the 2003 Marlins. I don't buy it. As I wrote in that post, I don't think the Royals have nearly the same level of talent that the Angels or Marlins had. The pitching isn't there, and the offense is certainly not there. Since I just wrote so recently on my prediction for the Royals, I'm not going to repeat my argument here. If you want like to read about it, it can be found here: why the Royals won't win the 2004 World Series. All I have to say is that it is possible for the Royals to win this division because, as I've said, this is a very mediocre division.
Obvious story line: The last time Juan Gonzalez drove in over 100 runs, the year was 2001. The Yankees had yet to fall to fall victim to a dinky pop up off of the bat of Luis Gonzalez, and I was a freshman in college. Now, I'm a junior, and the Yankees will go into 2004 with a payroll equivalent to some small countries' GDP. In 2001, Gonzalez drove in 140 runs. Since then, Gonzalez has managed to drive in just 105 runs combined over the last two seasons. During these last two years, Juan has played in only 152 games. Juan has been Gone much more frequently from the lineup than the Rangers would have liked. For the Royals to come anywhere close to October or a division title, Gonzalez will have to play a big role in kick starting the offense. While he could be a presence in this lineup, already his calf is hurting him. For this reason (and others articulated in the March 11 post), I simply can't pick the Royals to come anywhere close to a divisional title or a World Series appearance.
Interesting story line: (This one courtesy of Athlon Sports.) Darrell May has pitched 4.08.1 innings in his career, surrendering 71 home runs in the process. He is currently the active leader in most home runs allowed in a career of fewer than 425 innings pitched. Can he continue this astounding rate? Stay tuned to Kansas City Royals baseball to find out.
Old guy who was named in the BALCO incident to watch: Benito Santiago was one of those named a few weeks ago during the steroid witch hunts. This guy looks older than the Grand Canyon, and at age 39, he has caught over 15,000 innings in his career. I'm sure some people out there would attribute his longevity to steroid use. I will give him the benefit of the doubt, but if this steroid mess heats up over the summer, Santiago will feel that pressure, as he was already one of the named.
4. Cleveland Indians — I'm going to be frank with you right now: I don't know too much about the Indians. Of all 30 teams, I'm probably least familiar with the Indians and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mainly, that's because except for Mr. Board Game, Milton Bradley, and C.C. Sabathia, there are fewer names worth knowing on a team that is rushing prospects in order to field a Major League team. The Indians' rotation will feature Sabathia, maybe Jeff D'Amico, and a lot of no name guys who probably shouldn't be pitching in the Bigs. They will have to rely on Jose Jimenez to close now that Bob Wickman's out for a few months, and the rest of the bullpen is David Riske. The lineup will be good, but just not this year. Jody Gerut is a bright spot, but right now, most of these guys are place-holders until the Indians' very rich farm system ripens. When Grady Sizemore (OF) and Jeremy Guthrie (RHP) arrive in 2005, the Indians will then become a fun team to watch and an immediate contender in the Central.
Obvious story line: There are none. Well, wait. This is a stretch, but if the Tigers have a miraculous season, the Indians could be facing the cellar of the AL Central. Conversely, if a few key prospects mature quickly, the Indians could actually be in a position to make a run for the division title. While I think the former is a safer bet, in a division of mediocrity, the field is indeed wide open.
Interesting story line: The Bill James 2004 handbook lists the team's ace C.C. Sabathia at 270 pounds. That's quite a lot. In fact, for the Indians, that's too much. The team wishes he wouldn't put on the pounds so quickly. While he is still a major risk for injuries, feeling discomfort in his elbow last season, he has somehow managed to avoid serious injury. Food poisoning, that's a different story. Sabathia showed what he is capable of as he posted a 3.60 ERA last season, and the Indians would love to see that again.
Cereal to watch: Cleveland outfielder Coco Crisp is tearing up the Cactus League. He's hitting .404 and slugging .532 in 47 at-bats. Crisp could end up in the outfield alongside Milton Bradley. Now, if only the Indians could find Scott Tissue or Johnson & Johnson, they would have the best corporate outfield in the game.
5. Detroit Tigers — Last year, the Tigers were bad, 119 losses bad. To be that bad, everything has to click at the same time, just in the wrong direction, and for the Tigers, it did. They gave up 928 runs, the second most in the majors, and scored only 591, the second least in the majors. As a team, they hit .240/.300/.375 while their opponents steamrolled them with a .286/.350/.461 line. No one on the team reached .300 or the 100-RBI plateau. On the pitching side, they had a team ERA of 5.30 and managed just 4.78 strikeouts per 9 innings. On September 5, Mike Maroth became the first pitcher in 23 years to lose 20 games. He would end the season with 21 losses. But he was hardly alone. Jeremy Bonderman lost 19 games, and Nate Cornejo lost 17. To make matters worse, the Tigers' bullpen converted only 27 out of 46 save opportunities, and no pitcher recorded more than five saves.
With a season like 2003, General Manager Dave Dombrowski knew he had to improve the team somehow so that the fans wouldn't start deserting the team in droves. So during the off-season, he went out and revamped the lineup. He acquired Rondell White, Fernando Viña, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlos Guillen. While Viña only played in 60 games last year, these four combined scored 250 runs. Already, the Tigers' offense is looking improved, but this team still has a long way to go. Their rotation will still include Cornejo, Maroth, and Bonderman, and these three will be joined by Jason Johnson who has a career 4.91 ERA and a 36-58 record in seven seasons. The bullpen, now anchored by recent addition Ugueth Urbina, will be slightly improved, but this team is on thin ice. Viña, White, and Pudge all have a history of injury, and the bullpen upgrades are only upgrades because the team was so bad last year. It's true the Tigers could turn it around this year, but I think another 90- to 100-loss season is on the way.
Obvious story line: How many games will this team lose? As I detailed back in February, no team has gone from losing over 110 games one year to a .500 season the next year. The best improvement was 32.5 games with the average improvement only 16.5 games. While no team in history has enjoyed the same level of improvement on paper as the Tigers did this off-season, it's unlikely that the pitching in Detroit will improve by more than 30 games. And 30 games would only put Detroit at 73-89, still not a stellar season.
Interesting story line:Will the real Ugueth Urbina please stand up? In Florida, during the second half of 2003, Urbina was nearly unhittable. He had a 1.41 ERA and struck out 37 while surrendering just 23 hits, all in 38.1 innings. In Texas, during the first half of 2003, Urbina was definitely hittable. He sported a 4.19 ERA while striking out 41 and giving up 33 hits in, surprisingly enough, 38.2 innings. So either Urbina had a really rough one-third of an inning in Texas last year, or he was motivated by landing on a contender in time for the stretch drive. If the latter is the case, I can't understand Urbina's reasons for signing with Detroit when he had been offered other contracts. We all know Urbina was willing to sit out the 2004 season over money, and this looks like another case of a player ending up in Detroit because they are willing to overpay players in order to prove to the fans that they are committed to improving. I don't think the Florida Marlins version of Ugueth Urbina will be anywhere near Comerica Park this summer.
Contract clause to watch: Pudge's new contract has an interesting clause: If Rodriguez is on the DL for more than 35 days in 2004 or 2005, the Tigers can void the rest of the deal. The same holds true for 2006. This is believed to be the first non-guaranteed contract in MLB history, and it will be interesting to see how Pudge holds up. If his chronically-injured back starts aching, he may opt to play. A trip to the DL could cost Rodriguez nearly $20 million.
American League East
1. Toront...Just kidding. New York Yankees — Despite my allegiances, this is no easy pick. The Red Sox have as best a pitching staff as they've had in recent years, and their lineup is very impressive too, even with Pokey Reese occupying second base. The Yankees, on the other hand, are better. Here's the lineup they will probably send out their when they return from Japan:
1. Kenny Lofton
2. Derek Jeter
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Gary Sheffield
5. Jason Giambi
6. Jorge Posada
7. Hideki Matsui
8. Bernie Williams
9. Enrique Wilson
Their starting four are equally impressive. Five is a big giant question mark.
1. Mike Mussina
1a. Kevin Brown
1c. Javier Vazquez
4. Jose Contreras
5. Donovan Osbourne/Jon Lieber
The bullpen is great, too.
Paul Quantrill
Tom Gordon
Felix Heredia
Gabe White
Steve Karsay (mid-June)
Mariano Rivera
It's absurd. Even as a big fan, I think it's getting way out of hand. But at the same time, Baseball Prospectus rightly applauds Steinbrenner for spending the money the team is making. Owners like Carl Pohland and Wendy Selig pocket any profits, while George just keeps reinvesting in his team. If he has it, he should spend it, and it's up to Major League Baseball to adjust their system to make it work. And as we all know, anything short of a World Series title (which is no guarantee) will bring ruin upon the heads of the Yankees as King George will smite them upon a mountainside. Well, maybe it won't be so melodramatic, but you get the point. And yes, I know that avoiding injuries are a big part of the Yankees' predicted success this season. But in writing a season preview, all I can do is say watch Kevin Brown's arm and Gary Sheffield's thumb and Jason Giambi's knees. That's it. I can't predict if and when they'll get injured.
Way too obvious story line: Talent vs. Egos. This team has an abundant amount of talent. This team also has an abundant amount of ego. Which will win out? Find out next time on Ego-ography, only on the YES Network. For the Yankees to win, clearly talent will have to win out. But with A-Rod, Kevin Brown, and Sheffield all in one clubhouse and all serving under Captain Jeter, things could get messy if the Yankees start losing games during the dog days of August. This year, more than ever, Joe Torre will have to serve as a diplomat in the clubhouse as he manages egos on the field.
Interesting story line: Many people feel that Hideki Matsui is either overrated or he underperformed last year. Some people see his endless groundballs during the first half as an indication of a need to adjust to new pitching while others see his 107 RBIs as indicative of the people in front of him in the lineup. If all goes according to plan in the Bronx Zoo, Matsui should see this RBI total increase, thus confusing his critics even more. I believe that Matsui will be a better power hitter from the get-go this season, and as he'll have A-Rod, Sheffield, Giambi, and Posada in front of him, he'll see more pitches in the strike zone. Amidst a lineup of All Stars, I would expect a monster season from Godzilla, thus silencing the critics.
Cable channel to watch: For millions of New Yorkers, the premium tag has been lifted for the YES Network. No longer will people like my good friend Sabeel be forced to listen to John Sterling and Charlie Steiner to get their Yankee fix. The battle between Cablevisions — the company responsible for the sorry state of the Knicks and Rangers — and the Yankee ownership ended this week, and millions of Americans breathed a collective "finally" as everyone was sick of this story.
2. Boston Red Sox — On the pitching front, the Red Sox are as strong as the Yankees. They'll be throwing Pedro, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and Byung-Hyun Kim with Keith Foulke, Scott Williamson, Mike Timlin, and Alan Embree providing for a strong bullpen. The Red Sox problems are already revealing themselves as Trot Nixon is out until the end of May, thus exposing the offense and defense to some problems. Nomar, too, may miss some time, and Bill Mueller is experiencing some elbow discomfort. While the Yankees have yet to face the injury bug, the Red Sox are seeing it up close and personal during Spring Training. Red Sox Nation is hoping that the Sox players are just experience normal preseason pains, but if more Red Sox go down, their offense is much less potent than it seems.
Obvious story lines: The Red Sox have a lot of high-profile free agents on their hands. Nomar, Pedro, Trot, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek and Scott Williamson will all be free agents, and already Nomar and Pedro have made public their feelings. Nomar has never been thrilled with Red Sox management, and I don't think Red Sox management was too thrilled with his .203 combined September and October batting average, let along his strike outs in the postseason. Pedro will want more money than he's worth at this point in his career, and he's already said he would be willing to sign with the Yankees. If you thought Boggs of Clemens in pinstripes was a blow to New England, only imagine how the Red Sox fans will feel if Pedro were trotting out to the mound in the Bronx every fifth day. This season could be a rocky one in the press as these high-profile Red Sox fight to show their worth to the Boston brass. Red Sox Nation is certainly hoping for career years from all of them.
Interesting story line: Manny Ramirez was traded this winter for Alex Rodriguez. But then the deal fell through. While Boston fans deride Manny for his lack of enthusiasm, he has .335 over the last two seasons, tops in the AL. As long as Manny continues to produce, Red Sox fans should embrace him as the All Star he is. In the meantime, I'll continue to be very scared of him every time he bats against the Yankees. He is after all a Yankee killer.
Velocity to watch: Scouts say the velocity on Pedro's fastball is down. Pedro says he's ok. Analysts say Pedro doesn't need to rely on high velocity because he's a smarter pitcher now. It'll be interesting to see what happens to Pedro over the course of this season. Is this the year his arm finally caves in to that frayed rotator cuff? If Pedro wants his big contract, he better hope not. But with him, you never know.
3. Toronto Blue Jays — When the Yankees and Red Sox are decimated by injuries this summer, the Blue Jays will win the East. At least, that's what some people are thinking, and to tell you the truth, it's not an impossibility. Last season, the Jays scored 895 runs, best for third in the Majors, and there's no reason they can't do it again this year. Led by the reigning MVP Carlos Delgado and eventual-MVP Vernon Wells, the Jays lineup packs a punch. If Eric Hinske can regain his 2002 form, this lineup will be downright potent. On the flip side, the Blue Jays have Roy Halladay, Miguel Batista, and that's about it. There are no definite go-to guys in the bullpen, and Ted Lilly was less than impressive as he threw a career-high 178.2 innings for Oakland last year. I've always thought that Lilly is due for a shoulder injury because he throws across his body in a very awkward motion. For the Blue Jays to have a serious shot at the title, J.P. Ricciardi will have to pick up some bullpen help. Otherwise, Toronto will be looking up at Boston and New York yet again.
Obvious story line: If the Blue Jays finish third and Boston second, with the D-Rays and Baltimore finishing as I predict, this will be the seventh year in a row with the same finish, one through five, in any league. Already, the AL East holds the record for most consecutive years of the same. This year, though, the spread could be smaller.
Interesting story line: Who's going to catch for Toronto? Due for arrival in 2005 is Guillermo Quiroz. He can hit and has shown great defensive prowess. While he won't be as good as Joe Mauer, most analysts feel he'll hit for more power than Mauer ever will. In the meantime, Kevin Cash will get the job this year. While he threw out 26 percent of all base runners last season, he managed to hit .142 with 8 RBIs in 106 at bats. The Blue Jays' lineup can compensate for this lack of offense, but if Quiroz, ranked 35 by Baseball America, shows he's ready, Cash may be out of a job by mid-June.
Why the Blue Jays won't win the East: Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they have to play the Yankees and the Red Sox 19 times each for a total of 38 games against two of the best teams in history (barring injuries). Even if Halladay pitches one of the games every series against these two teams, the Blue Jays are still overmatched by the Yankees' and Red Sox' pitchers. In a few years, though, when age catches up with New York and Boston, the Jays will emerge as the team to beat in the East. In the meantime, the Blue Jays just hope the fans keep coming to the SkyDome.
4. Baltimore Orioles — The Orioles spent a lot of money this off-season, but they spent it in all the wrong places. Miguel Tejada is a sold investment, but Baltimore overpaid for Javy Lopez. Palmeiro is no longer the impact player he once was, and Sydney Ponson is the only pitcher holding the Orioles' rotation together now that Rodrigo Lopez's Spring Training has shown his one decent season was an utter fluke. The bullpen, consisting of Jorge Julio, Mike DeJean, Buddy Groom, and B.J. Ryan, is basically made up entirely of guys who would mop up on any decent team. While on the surface the Orioles appear to have improved, on the field, this team is destined to fail. And after seeing their pitchers get lit up during two Spring Training games a few weeks ago, I truly believe this team has no pitching staff to back up an offense that will score more runs than last year. The Orioles continue to be a lesson in unwise spending.
Obvious story line: In a pitchers' park, Tejada's career numbers are pretty impressive. He has a line of .270/.331/.460 with 156 HR and 604 RBI. While the move to Camden Yards won't inflate his power numbers, he now has to deal with facing the Yankees and the Red Sox a combined 38 times this season. That means, he'll be facing pitching far superior to anything the Mariners, Angels, or Rangers have been throwing at him the past seven years. For Tejada to justify the large contract, he'll have to excel against the big guns of the East. While he's been a Yankee-killer of late, hitting .327 with 26 home runs in 104 at bats over three seasons, it will be interesting to see how he responds to increased exposure to the Yankees' staff. (As a side note: Against Boston, Tejada has hit his averages. In 100 at bats, he's hit .280 with only 12 RBIs.)
Interesting story line: Who will pitch for Baltimore? After extolling the virtues of the rotations in Boston and New York, fans from other parts of the country may think I'm ridiculing the Orioles. That, however, is not my intention. Baltimore is faced with a serious problem that could turn the 2004 season into a very long one, indeed. So far, during the spring, Ponson has given up 5 HR and 24 hits in 21 innings while walking 10. He's the clear-cut ace of the Orioles' staff, and if he struggles, there's no one else to pick up the slack.
Pitcher to watch: The early indications from Fort Lauderdale are that Kurt Ainsworth may be the one to save the Orioles' rotation. In 16.1 innings this spring, he's allowed only 4 ER. While Ainsworth could be a pleasant surprise for Baltimore, he can't be expected to carry the rotation. Sir Sydney is going to have to step it up, but Kurt's season could make for a nice story.
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays — The Devil Rays have an interesting mixture of young talent and way over-the-hill veterans in the lineup this season. While everyone is expecting the Devil Rays to improve, no one should be expecting them to surprise the East and edge out Baltimore for that fourth spot. Make no mistake, this team is still expected to land fifth. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli should continue to improve, and the rotation is filled with live young arms. With the editions of Rey Sanchez and Tino Martinez, the pressure may be off manager Lou Piniella. He could turn to the veterans for leadership. But knowing Piniella and his temper, it's unlikely. As long as Sweet Lou isn't expecting too much this season, this young ballclub could begin to show some life, seven years after its inaugural season.
Obvious story line: Delmon Young, all of 18 years old, was the first round pick of the D-Rays last year. In the Arizona Fall League, he hit .417, a preview of things to come from Dmitri's younger and more talented brother. He and shortstop B.J. Upton are ranked 3 and 2 respectively on the Baseball American top 100 prospects list, and the future is a little brighter for Tampa Bay and their fans with these young prospects on the horizon.
Interesting story line: The Devil Rays averaged 13,070 fans per game last year, good for 29th in the Bigs. They were at a league-low 28.9 percent occupancy, and while the baseball world may see relatively better days for the Devil Rays, the casually fans won't be coming to the park in droves this year. If the D-Rays don't reverse their attendance trends, this team may be facing an economic crisis in the very near future.
Designated Hitter to watch: A few weeks ago, I performed a rudimentary statistically analysis in an effort to build evidence for my hypothesis that when players DH, they are not as focused on the game and thus hitting for lower average and less power. During this analysis, I found that Aubrey Huff last season was better at DH than at first base, but he really excelled when he was in the outfield. In 390 outfield at bats, Huff hit .328/.375/.590. While the arrival of Tino Martinez means that Huff won't be at first this year, it's looking like Piniella will use Huff as his DH. In my opinion, this is a mistake. Last year, Huff hit .311 with 34 HR and 107 RBIs, effectively winning the Devil Rays' Triple Crown. By assigning him to be the fulltime DH, the Rays may actually lose some production from their most established player.
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Well, that's it, folks. If you've made it this far, pat yourself on the back. As always, these are just my opinions on the 30 teams, and this preview is in no way complete or definitive. I'm just a fan with my own opinions. Leave me some feedback; I would love to hear what you, our readers, feel about my predictions, and I would love to hear what your predictions are as well. Excitingly enough, my next post will come after the start of the 2004 regular season, and I promise you that you'll have my thoughts on the first Yankee game of the season.
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Posted by Ben K. on Wednesday, March 24, 2004
One Outfielder For Sale
Updated Thursday, March 25 at 9:42 p.m.
Some baseball fans will take their devotion — and despair — to any levels. Today, up until about 30 minutes ago, one desperate Mets fan was auctioning off outfielder Roger Cedeño on eBay. While the online auction company has since pulled the auction, I thought I would post the description of the maligned Cedeño for all to see. It's really quite funny.
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###
Updated Thursday, March 25 at 9:42 p.m.
Some baseball fans will take their devotion — and despair — to any levels. Today, up until about 30 minutes ago, one desperate Mets fan was auctioning off outfielder Roger Cedeño on eBay. While the online auction company has since pulled the auction, I thought I would post the description of the maligned Cedeño for all to see. It's really quite funny.
This is an auction for Mets outfielder Roger Cedeño. He's played left, center and right fields, and all of them equally horrendously. He never gets a good jump on a ball, and on the rare occassion that he does end up in the general vicinity of one, he'll probably drop it. He used to be quite fast, but as he's gotten older and somewhat fatter on his contract, even that last vestige of value has left him. He cannot run the bases, he cannot play defense, he cannot hit for average or power and he couldn't get a bunt down to save his life. He does, however, still have a decent arm - but odds are he'll either miss the cutoff man or throw to the wrong base entirely, so it's a non-factor. When it comes to the oft-spoken "intangibles" of a professional athlete, this is where Cedeño really excels. Despite his woeful play, Roger somehow manages to smile and laugh and carry on like he's just hit a grand slam to win Game 7. This is where I believe his value truly kicks in, because that's just the type of person you want serving your organization from a customer support position. Cedeño would undoubtedly adapt to a concessionaire position with grace and aplomb. Also, imagine the excitement your fans would experience when they realize who just tossed them that hot dog or sold them that lemonade! Roger Cedeño contract is valued at $10,000,000 and terminates after the 2005 season. Thus, bidding starts at a reasonable $5,000,000 with the New York Mets Baseball Club hopefully picking up any difference incurred by this auction. Seller hereby gives his word as his bond that should the final auction price exceed the aforementioned value of Roger Cedeño's contract, $10,000,000 will be forwarded with haste to The New York Mets Baseball Club in order to expedite Roger Cedeño's unconditional release, with the difference being donated in it's entirety to the Lymphoma Research Foundation at http://www.lymphoma.org/site/PageServer?pagename=donate Seller is in no way affiliated with Major League Baseball, The New York Mets Baseball Club or Sterling Equities, Ltd. Good luck and happy bidding!!One member of Fark.com, the site where I first heard about this auction, has nicely taken screen shots and posted them for posterity. Of course, eBay has already pulled the auction since it's in violation of their policies. But for all you inquiring minds, here is a screen shot of the auction: eBay Item 3668589301 — Roger Cedeño. It looks as though this link will survive longer than the last one did.
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Posted by Ben K. on Tuesday, March 23, 2004
2004 Season Preview, Part II
Welcome to my 2004 Season Preview, Part II. Last time, I previewed the National League West and Central. If you missed it, you can find it here: Ben's 2004 Season Preview, Part I.
If you don't care to read the entire post, you can just check out each league individually:
National League West
National League Central
National League East
American League West
Before I delve into the National League East and the American League West, I would like to briefly discuss Sunday's implosion of Philadelphia's much-maligned and ugly Veterans Stadium. Sixty-two seconds after the scary green thing that runs around the stadium with no pants on pressed the detonator, the Vet was reduced to a pile of concrete. Ask anyone in the Philadelphia area, and they would say that it was about time for the Vet to go. I've seen 18 of the 30 major league parks, and outside of Olympic Stadium in Montreal, the Vet was by far the ugliest. (That award now goes to Shea Stadium, in my book.) Yet, there were a few Philadelphians mourning the loss of the Vet. Here's what Paul DiMuzio, the director of ballpark operations for the Phillies was quoted as saying over at Phillies.com:
National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies — It's tough to pick a team other than the Atlanta Braves for this slot; despite repeated reports the past few years, the demise of the Braves has been greatly exaggerated. Yet, after 12 years (not counting a strike-shortened 1994) as the Beasts of the East, I believe that the Braves' run is over. The reason for this is simple: the Phillies added All Star closer Billy Wagner (and set-up man Tim Worrell) during the off-season. In 2003, the Phillies had Jose Mesa closing games. While he converted 24 of 28 save attempts, he blew two key games in September during the pennant race. Furthermore, he lost 7 games coming out of the bullpen and sported an ERA of 6.52. It's easy to see why the Phillies decided not to pick up his option. Mesa also managed an astounding 0 win shares. On the flip side, Wagner on the Astros converted 44 of 47 opportunities while losing 4 games and sporting a sexy 1.78 ERA. He raked in 19 win shares for the 'Stros, second among closers to Eric Gagne. Keep in mind now that Wagner was responsible for more than 6 of the Astros' victories, and six more victories for which Mesa can claim credit.
Now, let's look at last year's standings: The Phillies finished five games behind the Marlins and 15 games behind the Braves. Had Wagner been in Philadelphia last year, it's very safe to assume that the Phillies would have played past the end of September. Now, consider that the Braves have since lost Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, and Greg Maddux; the Marlins are relying on Armando Benitez to close and are without Pudge's leadership; and the Phillies now sport a rotation of Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf (arguably the team ace), Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers, and Eric Milton to complement their vastly upgraded bullpen. Unless the Phillies implode as the Vet did on Sunday, it's hard to imagine this team not winning the East. Clearly, they are the heavy favorites.
Incredibly obvious story line: Let's see. New stadium, new bullpen, high expectations. Since I just detailed why I think the Phillies will win (pitching), there's not much need to go into it again, but let’s look at some odds. According to the lines from Vegas, the Phillies are the favorites at 3 to 1 to win the NL pennant while the Braves are more of a long shot at 12 to 1. On the division level, the bookies are barely taking bets for the Phillies. Philadelphia is enjoying 5 to 8 odds for the East, while the Braves are at 14 to 5. (Rounding out the division: Mets and Marlins at 7 to 1 and the Expos at 30 to 1.) For those of you who don't know — and I admit I had to look this up— the Phillies are so favored to win the East that bookies are being conservative. You bet a dollar on them this season, you'll get back that dollar plus a whopping 63 cents. The Braves win the East, and that dollar nets you $2.80 plus your original bet. In fact, the Phillies (according to Vegas), are more favored to win the NL East than any other team in Major League Baseball is expected to win their respective division. That's tough billing, and it will be interesting to see if the Phillies and Citizens Bank Ballpark can live up to these expectations. (For more fun with the odds, check out this U.K.-based betting site.)
Interesting story line: Last year, Pat Burrell crashed and burn like no other. His .209 average, 64 RBIs, and 57 runs scored were a far cry from the promise he showed in 2002. For $50 million and six years, Burrell is expected to deliver for the Phillies, and this year, he'll be under a lot of pressure to succeed. The early reports out of Clearwater suggest that Pat's improving, and his .293 average in 41 at bats is very encouraging, albeit with a grain of salt because those are just Spring Training numbers. In all likelihood, Burrell will hit fourth or fifth for the Phillies, and if he produces, this line up will be potent. If he falters and 2004 starts looking like 2003, the Phillies will have a big, expensive question mark on their hands.
Manager to watch: Outside of Pat Burrell and his return to stardom, all eyes in Philly will be squarely on Larry Bowa. While Bowa has 252 wins in three seasons at the Phillies manager (the most since Pat Moran managed the Phillies from 1915-1917), it's no secret that the players have much contempt for the man. Remember when Burrell himself refused to accept a congratulatory handshake from Bowa during the stretch drive? If the Phillies stumble out of the block, GM Ed Wade won't be afraid to cut Bowa faster than you can digest a cheesesteak from Geno's (or Pat’s if that’s what you like).
2. Florida Marlins — Most baseball people making their picks seem to like the Braves for this spot, thus making the defending World Champions underdogs once again. Personally, I like the Marlins for the second slot in the East, and I think they may give the Phillies a run for their money. With a rotation that features Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett (probably in June), Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, and Dontrelle Willis, the Marlins' starting five have the most potential of any rotation in the Majors. Their season depends greatly on whether or not these guys (plus whoever fills in for the injured Burnett) can fulfill this potential. In fact, after I started writing this post, MLB.com posted an article on how the Marlins pitchers are getting the short shrift. I couldn't agree with this more. In all the talks about Houston and the Cubs having the best rotation, the young live arms of the Marlins were neglected. I would take a healthy Burnett and Josh Beckett with no blisters over Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens at this point in their respective careers. But with youth comes uncertainty, and much with depend on the pitchers if the Marlins are to repeat their magical 2003 season.
Obvious story line: How much will the losses of Derrek Lee and Ivan Rodriguez hurt the team? I believe that Lee's leaving will have more of an effect on the lineup than Pudge's decision to sign with Detroit. Lee slugged higher than Ivan did last year, and he got on base more consistently while accounting for 25 win shares as opposed to Pudge's 23. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system is predicting a breakout season for replacement first baseman Hee Seop Choi, but he won't be bringing the same power, hitting skills, or leadership that Lee possessed. I believe that Rodriguez's replacement will turn in better numbers than Pudge does in Detroit, but the rape case hanging over Ramon Castro's head won't help his performance in the field, and Mike Redmond is definitely not the answer.
Interesting story line: Can Josh Beckett translate October stardom into regular season success or will his right arm fall off? During the Playoffs, Beckett decided being human just wasn't good enough, and against the Yankees he posted a 1.13 ERA, striking out 19 in 16.1 innings, and winning the World Series with a shut out in Yankee Stadium. Oh yes, he did that on three-days' rest. Before that, he pitched four innings of 1-hit ball in relief to bring the Marlins an NLCS victory. He did that on two-days' rest. At the same time, Beckett has never won more than 9 games at the Major League level. Based on the 2003 season, Beckett's destiny is one of two things: Tommy John surgery or a career of All Star appearances and top-10 Cy Young finishes. This upcoming season will be a big indication of things to come for the 23-year-old from Texas.
Headcase to watch: No one will be missed more on the Marlins than Ugueth Urbina (and by May, probably Braden Looper too). Last season, the still-unsigned Urbina came to the Marlins at the trade deadline and was utterly dominant. He sported a 1.41 ERA in 38.1 innings while striking out 37. He raked up 11 holds and converted 6 of 8 save opportunities when Looper was demoted. Despite a rocky October, he was a large part of the Marlins' winning the Wild Card. On the other hand, Looper was better than most people gave him credit for. He converted 28 of 34 save chances, and while he didn't strike out many, he wasn't horrible. Yet Looper will be closing for the Mets, and Urbina will be closing the door to his fridge until he decides to take a pay cut and sign somewhere (maybe with the Indians). So the Marlins turned to perennial goat Armando Benitez, for some inexplicable reason. Last year, Armando managed to save 21 out of 29 opportunities, and while his ERA was a respectable 2.96, he walked an astounding 41 men. It's a nightmare every time he pitches, mainly because he can't throw his 96-mph fastball for strikes with any consistency. The Marlins are taking a huge gamble with Benitez, and had he been on the team last year, those 8 blown saves would have cost the Marlins the Wild Card.
3. Atlanta Braves — Things ain't what they used to be in Atlanta. Gary Sheffield and his .330 BA/39 HR/132RBI/.604 SLG, gone. Greg Maddux and his legacy, gone. Javy Lopez and his .328/43/109/.687, gone. John Smoltz and his elbow, surgically repaired and questionable. The days of Atlanta's dominance are over. The rotation is now headed by Russ Ortiz (and his league-leading 102 walks last year), Mike Hampton, John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez, and a 5th starter to be named later. The offense, which could still be fairly strong, is centered around Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, and the oft-injured J.D. Drew. With Smoltz in the bullpen, the Braves' games are still 8 innings long, as long as his elbow is ok; getting through those first 8 innings will be much tougher this year however that it has been for the Braves since they finished in last place in the old NL West in 1990.
Obvious story line: Outside of the "Is this really the end of the Atlanta Era?" story, J.D. Drew and his injured past have garnered so much attention this spring that he's moved from my interesting story line to the obvious story line. Drew, if you may recall, was one of Scott Boras' draft hold-outs when he was picked in 1997 by the Phillies. In 1998, the Cardinals gave him the large bonus he wanted, but Drew has yet to fulfill his potential. In six years in the Bigs, he's played in 135 games only twice, and while his career .289 average is good, his power numbers and run production have been well off any sort of expected pace. He suffers from the same injury (chronic patellar tendonitis) that cut short Mark McGwire's career, and he'll have to remain largely injury-free or else the Braves will have a large whole in their lineup.
Interesting story line: Braves' pitching coach Leo Mazzone is almost a sure lock for the Hall of Fame, no small feat for a pitching coach. He's been the man responsible for the success of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and the countless other pitchers who came out of Atlanta vastly improved. This year, he is faced with arguably his toughest task since 1990. Ortiz, while winning 21 games, walked a ton of guys; Thomson showed some promise ace the Texas Rangers' "ace" last year, but at age 30, it could be like teaching an old dog new tricks. Hampton, who went 11-3 with a 3.26 ERA over his last 17 starts in 2003, could re-emerge as the ace he was with Houston. But overall, it's clear that Mazzone and manager Bobby Cox have the worst pitching the Braves have seen since the start of their incredible run.
Prospect to watch: Unless the Braves go with 90-year-old Julia Franco as their Opening Day first baseman, Adam LaRouche, who is certainly young enough to be Franco's son, will become the every-day Braves first baseman. LaRouche, ranked the 73 on Baseball America's top prospect list, has been compared favorable to Doug Mientkdwqddkzt (that's Mientkiewicz, but can you really tell the difference). In two stops last season in the minors, LaRouche hit around .290/.370/.480 with 20 HR but a K:BB ratio of 1.8:1. That, however, represents a big step up from his 2001 K:BB of 3.6:1. With solid defense and a decent bat, LaRouche could bring some stability to first base in Atlanta.
4. New York Mets — At 66-95 last year, the Mets really hit bottom. Playing in the shadow of the Yankees, it's not easy to compete for attendance, attention, or success in New York when your neighbors to the Northeast have unlimited financial resources. Last year, the Mets had to rebuild and New Yorkers do not take kindly to rebuilding years. This year, unfortunately for the Mets, does not look much different. Tom Glavine and Al Leiter would have made an impressive front-end of a rotation five or six season ago, but age is taking a toll on these two pitchers. Steve Trachsel continues to plod along, and Jae Weong Seo was a bright spot last year. The top half of the Mets' lineup should be good: Kaz Matsui, Jose Reyes, Mike Piazza, and Cliff Floyd could all produce if healthy, but Mike Cameron and the hitters below him will probably do more to break the Mets' season than make it.
Obvious story line: For the Mets this year, there are two obvious story lines. Once is Mike Piazza's boring switch to first base. Really, who cares? Good luck there, Mike; just watch that groin on the stretches. The other obvious story — Matsui Mania — is much more interesting. In Japan, Matsui was a bona fide star. He hit .305/.368/.549 with 33 HR. The Mets are so high on him that they gave Kaz $20.1 million for 3 years and moved Jose Reyes, one of the best young short stops in the game, over to second. While many analysts think Matsui will excel in the America, I see an alarming increase in his strike out rate in Japan. In 2000, he struck out 60 times in 550 at bats; last year, he K'ed 124 times in 587 at bats while drawing only 55 walks. While Hideki Matsui struck out fewer times in his first big league season, Hideki was a better contact hitter with a higher OBP in Japan than Kazuo was. Additionally, baseball analysts are predicting 30 stolen bases for Matsui this year. Yet, last year in Japan, he stole just 13, down from 33 the year before. While the Mets may reap the benefits of signing Japan's best second baseman, his strike outs could become very problematic as he adjusts to a new brand of baseball, and his expected speed just might not be there at all.
Interesting story line: In 160 at bats last year, premier prospect Jose Reyes hit .269/.333/.356 with 5 HR, 32 RBIs, and 47 runs scored. Back in 1995, also at age 20, a young Alex Rodriguez hit .232/.264/.408 with 5 HR, 19 RBIs, and only 15 runs scored in 142 at bats. Last year, Reyes walked 13 times while striking out 36 times; in 1995, A-Rod walked 6 times while striking out 42 times. While A-Rod showed much more power and slightly better hitting skills at the Minor League level than Reyes did, it's not inconceivable to think that Reyes could develop into a hitter of A-Rod's caliber, just without the 50-HR power. This season will be a big step in the development of Reyes as a ball player, and it will be interesting to watch how he adapts to a new position in his first full season in New York. If he fails at short, the only people to blame are the Mets development team. I believe that, in the long run, Jose Reyes has more to offer the Mets than Kazuo Matsui. It's conceivable that he could have been the next A-Rod. I hope the Mets made the right move in moving Reyes to second.
Prospect to watch (or trade): Aaron Heilman is one of the highest-regarded prospects in the Mets' system. Yet, last season, he tanked. In 13 starts, he went 2-7 with a 6.75 ERA. He gave up 79 hits and walked 41 in 65.1 innings for a WHIP 1.85. The 25-year-old wasn't fooling anyone. This year, Heilman has a shot at being the Mets' fifth starter, and he's pitched well down at Port St. Lucie this spring. For the Mets, this is the do or die season for Heilman. If Aaron sputters at the start, the Mets ought to trade him before his stock sinks to low. If he fulfills his potential, he could be a big part of the Mets' rotation as they rebuild from a solid core of minor leaguers.
5. Montreal Expos — This off-season, Major League Baseball officially gave up on the Montreal Expos. They didn't make an effort to sign Vladimir Guerrero, and they traded away their pitching future when Javier Vazquez landed with the Yankees. The Expos' rotation is spotty with Livan Hernandez and Tony Armas providing the weakest one-two punch in the NL East. Behind them are Zach Day, Tomo Ohka, and Claudio Vargas. I think the names speak for themselves. While Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, and Jose Vidro will be decent in the middle of the order, Vidro may not be in Canada past July. Outside of Brad Wilkerson, the outfield of Carl Everett, Juan Rivera, Termel Sledge, and Endy Chavez is pretty much a disaster. With the exception of Everett, the other four guys have yet to establish themselves at the big league level, and Everett is a problem himself. While the Expos were in the Wild Card lead through August last year, don't expect the same level of competitiveness from the team this year.
Way too obvious story line: The only people to blame for the sorry state of the Expos are Bud Selig and his people. Had Major League Baseball and the other 29 owners actively pursued their relocation plan and a potential suitor for the Expos, the team from Montreal (or Washington, D.C., or anywhere else)with a new owner and a fan base may have been able to afford Guerrero or Vazquez. Yet, MLB keeps pushing back the timetable for relocation. The Expos are already a PR nightmare for Selig and Co. It's time for them to actively pursue this issue. As with last year, this will again dominate the Expos' season.
Perversely interesting story line: Last year, the Expos averaged 12,662 fans per home game. While this does include a bunch of games in Puerto Rico, that number is still good enough for last place in attendance. And this was in a year when the people of Montreal thought they were seeing the Expos for the last time. As the Expos get worse, it will be interesting to see how few people they draw to their games. The Cubs and Yankees among others have, on average, outdrawn the Expos at home during Spring Training; if the Expos show no life during the beginning of the season, and MLB draws out the relocation process even more, Olympic Stadium might have more people on the field than in the seats come late August and September.
Ex-Yankee to watch: Somehow, Nick Johnson was underrated while he was on the Yankees. He had an OBP of .422 and walked 13 more times than he struck out, a rare feat indeed. He drove in 47 runs while scoring 60 in only 96 games. He saw 4.28 pitches per plate appearance, second only to Edgar Martinez, but he did not have the necessary number of at bats to qualify for the leader boards. In Montreal, Nick could blossom into a huge star. He'll be batting third in the lineup with decent protection in Vidro behind him. While he has yet to show that he can stay healthy for entire season at any level of pro ball, he could put up a huge season for the Expos and your fantasy team if he gets 450 at bats. But, if the past is any indication, even 400 ABs is unlikely, and Nick already has experienced some lower back pain this spring.
American League West
1. Oakland Athletics — This division is tough. The Angels made some significant improvements this season, and the Mariners' line up still packs a punch. But in the end, I have to go with the A's for one reason. Well, maybe it's three reasons. With Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito pitching three out of five days, it's easy to win. Backed up by Rich Harden and Mark Redman, the A's have one of the best rotations in the American League, and easily the best rotation in the West. Despite their lack of offense and shaky bullpen situation, their pitching should carry them to another division title in the West.
Obvious story line: The A's finally have their $66-million man. By signing his big contract, Eric Chavez immediately became the most important man in the A's lineup (although he probably was before he signed the contract). Chavez now must start hitting lefties. In his career, he's managed a remarkable .302 BA off righties and a woeful .229 off lefties. He no longer enjoys the protection of Miguel Tejada; instead, he'll be hitting in front of Jermaine Dye (awful) and Erubiel Durazo (potentially decent protection). The A's offense which pales in comparison to the years of Chavez-Giambi-Tejada will be riding on Chavez's bat alone. He holds the key to Oakland's October chances.
Interesting story line: Last season, Arthur Rhodes' ERA ballooned from 1.72 in 2001 to 4.17. He struck out only 48, down from 81 in 2002, and gave up only 1 fewer hit than innings pitched. While the guys at Baseball Prospectus think 2003 was merely a fluke for Rhodes, I think the 307 appearances he's made over the last 4 season may be taking its toll; that is, after a while, a lot of bull pen pitches. The A's are relying on Rhodes to close this year with almost no options behind him. For the success of the Big Three to translate into wins, Rhodes will have to hope that he can regain his 2001-2002 form.
Ballpark to watch: Just last week, Bud Selig announced that the Oakland Coliseum "cannot produce enough revenue for his team to be competitive and keep the players they want to keep." Yet, at the same time, Selig won't let the A's move to Santa Clara because that's within the Giants' territorial rights. So the A's are trapped in a bad ballpark with limited options. This team is one of the best franchises of the young 2000's; they deserve a new ballpark, and Selig shouldn't stop them. With a schedule that rarely sees the A's and Giants at home on the same day, a new ballpark in Santa Clara would hardly draw fans away from San Francisco. The A's ownership is fighting for a new ballpark, and Selig should be too.
2. Anaheim Angels — Many baseball guys picked the Angels to win the division. With the additions of Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, and Vladimir Guerrero, this team has the make up to win games, but I don't think they top the A's. With a offensive lineup of Guerrero, Garret Anderson, and a supposedly healthy Troy Glaus, the Angels pack more punch than the A's. However, Colon is too inconsistent to be considered in the same league as Zito-Mulder-Hudson, and Escobar is a number 3 guy who pitches a lot. The jury's still out on Jarrod Washburn, Ramon Ortiz, and John Lackey.
Obvious story line: Going back to Vegas, the odds on the Angels are 10 to 11, which means they are favored slightly over the 2 to 1 Athletics. Yet, I'm not picking them to win. Looking at Anaheim, the baseball world will wonder whether the Angels can win. Can David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy return to their 2002 forms? And more importantly, can the Angels finally avoid the injury bug? Vald, Glaus and Salmon need to stay healthy for this team to win, but more importantly, Garret Anderson has to play 150 games for the offense to stay scary good. Right now, Anderson has been hurt on and off during March. If any of these injuries carry over into the regular season, and if the players on the team play to their 2003 levels instead of 2002, the grade-B rotation won't be enough to propel the Angels passed a second place finish.
Interesting story line: In 2000, Darin Erstad hit .355. In 2003, at the age of 28-29, Erstad hit .255 and suffered numerous injuries. His legs are so bad that the Angels are moving him to first base. This move will take much of the strain off of Erstad's legs, and the Angels are hoping it translate into offensive success as well. While the big stories on this team will be Vlad, Colon, and Garret Anderson, Erstad could become an important x-factor. If the move is successful, and he can approach his 2000 levels again, the Angels will enjoy a big offensive boost. Otherwise, they'll have to contend with a woefully unproductive first baseman.
Factoid to watch: Garret Anderson is the holder of a dubious record: consecutive seasons with more than 35 doubles and fewer than 35 walks. Last season, he hit 49 doubles, but his walk total is slowing climbing towards 35. After hitting 34 in 1999, he walked only 24 times in 2000, 27 times in 2001, 30 times in 2002, and 31 times in 2003. If Anderson shows just a little more patience at the plate, his record-setting streak will be over. I fully expect him to get his 35 doubles, but seeing as how Garret is part of the Nomar-Soriano School of Swinging at Everything, those 35 walks may be a bit elusive.
3. Seattle Mariners — The Mariners will win 90 games this season, but still finish in 3rd place. It's simply a testament to how strong their division is. The lineup will look similar to last year's, which is part of the problem. Randy Winn replaces Mike Cameron (offensive upgrade, defensive downgrade), and Scott Spiezio unseats the awful Jeff Cirillo. There's absolutely no way Spiezio can be worse than Jeff Cirillo. It's just not possible. Ask Dave about that one; he'll definitely agree. The bullpen also looks good. Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Eddie Guardado will close out games. The rotation is the same as last year, which may be a problem. This team could win the West, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding the offense and starting pitching. In the end, the team inconsistencies will land them in third place.
Obvious story line: Much depends on Freddy Garcia. In 2001, when the Mariners won 116 games, Garcia was 18-6 with a 3.05 ERA. Since then, he's declined greatly, and last year, he was 12-14 with a 4.51 ERA. Furthermore, he gave up an astounding 31 home runs in 201.1 innings, or one every 6.5 innings. Many people in the baseball world were ready to write off Garcia, but he is after all only turning 28 in June. The Mariners are relying on him to rebound, and in Peoria, AZ, he's been solid. If Garcia can rebound, the Mariners may be able to pull off a division win, but if he struggles, the Mariners' hopes will flounder.
Interesting story line: For a few months last year, Ichiro looked decidedly human. After the All Star break, he hit just .259/301/.383 only 9 stolen bases (compared to 25 before the Break). Is this the Ichiro after the rest of the American League has figured him out? Only April and May of this year may tell. The Mariners need Ichiro to set the table. He has to get on base and steal to start the game, constantly throwing the defense off. If he struggles, the Mariners will be faced with a leadoff guy who sports a low .300s OBP. I wouldn't have expected this big of a fall from Ichiro, and I don't think it will be a permanent decline. I doubt however the he will again hit .350/.384/.457, as he did in 2001.
Wild Card race to watch: I have bad news for the fans of the AL West: The Wild Card will be coming from the East. Because this division is so strong, the top three teams will end up tearing each other up. The A's, Mariners, and Angels play each other about 4,000 teams each while the Yankees and Red Sox get to play the Orioles (who aren't that good) and the Devil Rays instead. I predict three 90-win teams from the West, but only the team on top of the standings on October 3 will play on.
4. Texas Rangers — No team shows that pitching wins quite like the Rangers. Last year, they scored 826 runs, good for fourth in the AL. But they gave up 969 runs, the most in the Majors by an astounding 61 runs. The good news for the Rangers is that, despite losing A-Rod, they should still score a lot of runs. The bad news is that they will still give up a lot of runs. They lost arguably their best pitcher when John Thomson went to their Braves, and their rotation of Chan Ho Park, Kenny Rogers, Colby Lewis (10-9, 7.30 ERA), Ricardo Rodriguez, and Joaquin Benoit (and his 23 home runs allowed in 105 innings) won't exactly strike fear in the hearts of anyone. Their bullpen could be good, but already Jeff Zimmerman's elbow has a knot, much like last year, and without him, the pen in Texas lacks a definite anchor. With a great young core of hitters, this team will show some promise, but their pitching just won't cut it in this highly-competitive division.
Obvious story line: Now that most of A-Rod's contract is off the books, the Rangers have more money to spend on pitching. If the Fuson/Hart General Manager team sees a competitive team, the Rangers could go out and pick up some pitching to help them down the stretch drive. I personally think the Rangers should just wait until next off-season. They shouldn't trade any of the young players who are key to their long-term success. Grady Fuson has the team on a long-term development path, and they shouldn't let the lures of short-term success ruin this plan.
Interesting story line: Last October, Alfonso Soriano managed to strike out 26 times in 71 at bats. At one point, he was benched in the World Series in favor of Enrique Wilson. Now, out of New York, Soriano has the opportunity to put that behind him. The heat in Texas will pad his home run total, and he won't have the New York media breathing down his back every time he strikes out four times per game. But will this stop him from swinging for the fences? I don't think so. Soriano, who's really 28, may have reached his peak, and now, every pitcher knows that the old strike-strike-fastball away routine will get Sori to flail at three straight pitches. Personally, I hope Alfonso succeeds beyond everyone's wildest imagination in Texas; he could make the Rangers fans forget about that A-Rod guy. But I fear that Soriano may be facing a lot of walks back to the dugout after those three-pitch at bats.
Spoilers to watch: The last five series of the Rangers' season are against, in this order, Oakland, Anaheim, Oakland, Seattle, and Anaheim. The Rangers could be the deciding factor in the AL West race. If the three teams are as close as I think they will be, the games they play against Texas in September and October will determine the outcome of the West. While the Rangers themselves probably won't be playing for anything special, their fans will enjoy some important games late in September this year.
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So that's it for part II. If you've made it this far, congratulations. I'll be back at the end of the week with my (shorter) look at the AL Central and my analysis of baseball's strongest division: the AL East.
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Welcome to my 2004 Season Preview, Part II. Last time, I previewed the National League West and Central. If you missed it, you can find it here: Ben's 2004 Season Preview, Part I.
If you don't care to read the entire post, you can just check out each league individually:
National League West
National League Central
National League East
American League West
Before I delve into the National League East and the American League West, I would like to briefly discuss Sunday's implosion of Philadelphia's much-maligned and ugly Veterans Stadium. Sixty-two seconds after the scary green thing that runs around the stadium with no pants on pressed the detonator, the Vet was reduced to a pile of concrete. Ask anyone in the Philadelphia area, and they would say that it was about time for the Vet to go. I've seen 18 of the 30 major league parks, and outside of Olympic Stadium in Montreal, the Vet was by far the ugliest. (That award now goes to Shea Stadium, in my book.) Yet, there were a few Philadelphians mourning the loss of the Vet. Here's what Paul DiMuzio, the director of ballpark operations for the Phillies was quoted as saying over at Phillies.com:
"From day one to the last day, I've been at the Vet, so that's why it's so tough for me. I shed a tear when it came down. I shed a few tears before it came down.”I guess I understand why DiMuzio would be sad; he did work at the Vet for the past 22 years. But at the same time, these are the same people who criticized the enclosed, sterile Vet and its horrible AstroTurf for much of the last 10 years. If I were an employee of the Phillies, I would be thrilled to be moving into the beautiful, state-of-the-art Citizens Bank Ballpark. By this time next year, I bet that the Vet will just be another memory in the collective consciousness of Philadelphians, and one that the citizens of the City of Brotherly Love will be trying desperately to forget. Now, onto the preview.
National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies — It's tough to pick a team other than the Atlanta Braves for this slot; despite repeated reports the past few years, the demise of the Braves has been greatly exaggerated. Yet, after 12 years (not counting a strike-shortened 1994) as the Beasts of the East, I believe that the Braves' run is over. The reason for this is simple: the Phillies added All Star closer Billy Wagner (and set-up man Tim Worrell) during the off-season. In 2003, the Phillies had Jose Mesa closing games. While he converted 24 of 28 save attempts, he blew two key games in September during the pennant race. Furthermore, he lost 7 games coming out of the bullpen and sported an ERA of 6.52. It's easy to see why the Phillies decided not to pick up his option. Mesa also managed an astounding 0 win shares. On the flip side, Wagner on the Astros converted 44 of 47 opportunities while losing 4 games and sporting a sexy 1.78 ERA. He raked in 19 win shares for the 'Stros, second among closers to Eric Gagne. Keep in mind now that Wagner was responsible for more than 6 of the Astros' victories, and six more victories for which Mesa can claim credit.
Now, let's look at last year's standings: The Phillies finished five games behind the Marlins and 15 games behind the Braves. Had Wagner been in Philadelphia last year, it's very safe to assume that the Phillies would have played past the end of September. Now, consider that the Braves have since lost Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, and Greg Maddux; the Marlins are relying on Armando Benitez to close and are without Pudge's leadership; and the Phillies now sport a rotation of Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf (arguably the team ace), Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers, and Eric Milton to complement their vastly upgraded bullpen. Unless the Phillies implode as the Vet did on Sunday, it's hard to imagine this team not winning the East. Clearly, they are the heavy favorites.
Incredibly obvious story line: Let's see. New stadium, new bullpen, high expectations. Since I just detailed why I think the Phillies will win (pitching), there's not much need to go into it again, but let’s look at some odds. According to the lines from Vegas, the Phillies are the favorites at 3 to 1 to win the NL pennant while the Braves are more of a long shot at 12 to 1. On the division level, the bookies are barely taking bets for the Phillies. Philadelphia is enjoying 5 to 8 odds for the East, while the Braves are at 14 to 5. (Rounding out the division: Mets and Marlins at 7 to 1 and the Expos at 30 to 1.) For those of you who don't know — and I admit I had to look this up— the Phillies are so favored to win the East that bookies are being conservative. You bet a dollar on them this season, you'll get back that dollar plus a whopping 63 cents. The Braves win the East, and that dollar nets you $2.80 plus your original bet. In fact, the Phillies (according to Vegas), are more favored to win the NL East than any other team in Major League Baseball is expected to win their respective division. That's tough billing, and it will be interesting to see if the Phillies and Citizens Bank Ballpark can live up to these expectations. (For more fun with the odds, check out this U.K.-based betting site.)
Interesting story line: Last year, Pat Burrell crashed and burn like no other. His .209 average, 64 RBIs, and 57 runs scored were a far cry from the promise he showed in 2002. For $50 million and six years, Burrell is expected to deliver for the Phillies, and this year, he'll be under a lot of pressure to succeed. The early reports out of Clearwater suggest that Pat's improving, and his .293 average in 41 at bats is very encouraging, albeit with a grain of salt because those are just Spring Training numbers. In all likelihood, Burrell will hit fourth or fifth for the Phillies, and if he produces, this line up will be potent. If he falters and 2004 starts looking like 2003, the Phillies will have a big, expensive question mark on their hands.
Manager to watch: Outside of Pat Burrell and his return to stardom, all eyes in Philly will be squarely on Larry Bowa. While Bowa has 252 wins in three seasons at the Phillies manager (the most since Pat Moran managed the Phillies from 1915-1917), it's no secret that the players have much contempt for the man. Remember when Burrell himself refused to accept a congratulatory handshake from Bowa during the stretch drive? If the Phillies stumble out of the block, GM Ed Wade won't be afraid to cut Bowa faster than you can digest a cheesesteak from Geno's (or Pat’s if that’s what you like).
2. Florida Marlins — Most baseball people making their picks seem to like the Braves for this spot, thus making the defending World Champions underdogs once again. Personally, I like the Marlins for the second slot in the East, and I think they may give the Phillies a run for their money. With a rotation that features Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett (probably in June), Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, and Dontrelle Willis, the Marlins' starting five have the most potential of any rotation in the Majors. Their season depends greatly on whether or not these guys (plus whoever fills in for the injured Burnett) can fulfill this potential. In fact, after I started writing this post, MLB.com posted an article on how the Marlins pitchers are getting the short shrift. I couldn't agree with this more. In all the talks about Houston and the Cubs having the best rotation, the young live arms of the Marlins were neglected. I would take a healthy Burnett and Josh Beckett with no blisters over Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens at this point in their respective careers. But with youth comes uncertainty, and much with depend on the pitchers if the Marlins are to repeat their magical 2003 season.
Obvious story line: How much will the losses of Derrek Lee and Ivan Rodriguez hurt the team? I believe that Lee's leaving will have more of an effect on the lineup than Pudge's decision to sign with Detroit. Lee slugged higher than Ivan did last year, and he got on base more consistently while accounting for 25 win shares as opposed to Pudge's 23. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system is predicting a breakout season for replacement first baseman Hee Seop Choi, but he won't be bringing the same power, hitting skills, or leadership that Lee possessed. I believe that Rodriguez's replacement will turn in better numbers than Pudge does in Detroit, but the rape case hanging over Ramon Castro's head won't help his performance in the field, and Mike Redmond is definitely not the answer.
Interesting story line: Can Josh Beckett translate October stardom into regular season success or will his right arm fall off? During the Playoffs, Beckett decided being human just wasn't good enough, and against the Yankees he posted a 1.13 ERA, striking out 19 in 16.1 innings, and winning the World Series with a shut out in Yankee Stadium. Oh yes, he did that on three-days' rest. Before that, he pitched four innings of 1-hit ball in relief to bring the Marlins an NLCS victory. He did that on two-days' rest. At the same time, Beckett has never won more than 9 games at the Major League level. Based on the 2003 season, Beckett's destiny is one of two things: Tommy John surgery or a career of All Star appearances and top-10 Cy Young finishes. This upcoming season will be a big indication of things to come for the 23-year-old from Texas.
Headcase to watch: No one will be missed more on the Marlins than Ugueth Urbina (and by May, probably Braden Looper too). Last season, the still-unsigned Urbina came to the Marlins at the trade deadline and was utterly dominant. He sported a 1.41 ERA in 38.1 innings while striking out 37. He raked up 11 holds and converted 6 of 8 save opportunities when Looper was demoted. Despite a rocky October, he was a large part of the Marlins' winning the Wild Card. On the other hand, Looper was better than most people gave him credit for. He converted 28 of 34 save chances, and while he didn't strike out many, he wasn't horrible. Yet Looper will be closing for the Mets, and Urbina will be closing the door to his fridge until he decides to take a pay cut and sign somewhere (maybe with the Indians). So the Marlins turned to perennial goat Armando Benitez, for some inexplicable reason. Last year, Armando managed to save 21 out of 29 opportunities, and while his ERA was a respectable 2.96, he walked an astounding 41 men. It's a nightmare every time he pitches, mainly because he can't throw his 96-mph fastball for strikes with any consistency. The Marlins are taking a huge gamble with Benitez, and had he been on the team last year, those 8 blown saves would have cost the Marlins the Wild Card.
3. Atlanta Braves — Things ain't what they used to be in Atlanta. Gary Sheffield and his .330 BA/39 HR/132RBI/.604 SLG, gone. Greg Maddux and his legacy, gone. Javy Lopez and his .328/43/109/.687, gone. John Smoltz and his elbow, surgically repaired and questionable. The days of Atlanta's dominance are over. The rotation is now headed by Russ Ortiz (and his league-leading 102 walks last year), Mike Hampton, John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez, and a 5th starter to be named later. The offense, which could still be fairly strong, is centered around Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, and the oft-injured J.D. Drew. With Smoltz in the bullpen, the Braves' games are still 8 innings long, as long as his elbow is ok; getting through those first 8 innings will be much tougher this year however that it has been for the Braves since they finished in last place in the old NL West in 1990.
Obvious story line: Outside of the "Is this really the end of the Atlanta Era?" story, J.D. Drew and his injured past have garnered so much attention this spring that he's moved from my interesting story line to the obvious story line. Drew, if you may recall, was one of Scott Boras' draft hold-outs when he was picked in 1997 by the Phillies. In 1998, the Cardinals gave him the large bonus he wanted, but Drew has yet to fulfill his potential. In six years in the Bigs, he's played in 135 games only twice, and while his career .289 average is good, his power numbers and run production have been well off any sort of expected pace. He suffers from the same injury (chronic patellar tendonitis) that cut short Mark McGwire's career, and he'll have to remain largely injury-free or else the Braves will have a large whole in their lineup.
Interesting story line: Braves' pitching coach Leo Mazzone is almost a sure lock for the Hall of Fame, no small feat for a pitching coach. He's been the man responsible for the success of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and the countless other pitchers who came out of Atlanta vastly improved. This year, he is faced with arguably his toughest task since 1990. Ortiz, while winning 21 games, walked a ton of guys; Thomson showed some promise ace the Texas Rangers' "ace" last year, but at age 30, it could be like teaching an old dog new tricks. Hampton, who went 11-3 with a 3.26 ERA over his last 17 starts in 2003, could re-emerge as the ace he was with Houston. But overall, it's clear that Mazzone and manager Bobby Cox have the worst pitching the Braves have seen since the start of their incredible run.
Prospect to watch: Unless the Braves go with 90-year-old Julia Franco as their Opening Day first baseman, Adam LaRouche, who is certainly young enough to be Franco's son, will become the every-day Braves first baseman. LaRouche, ranked the 73 on Baseball America's top prospect list, has been compared favorable to Doug Mientkdwqddkzt (that's Mientkiewicz, but can you really tell the difference). In two stops last season in the minors, LaRouche hit around .290/.370/.480 with 20 HR but a K:BB ratio of 1.8:1. That, however, represents a big step up from his 2001 K:BB of 3.6:1. With solid defense and a decent bat, LaRouche could bring some stability to first base in Atlanta.
4. New York Mets — At 66-95 last year, the Mets really hit bottom. Playing in the shadow of the Yankees, it's not easy to compete for attendance, attention, or success in New York when your neighbors to the Northeast have unlimited financial resources. Last year, the Mets had to rebuild and New Yorkers do not take kindly to rebuilding years. This year, unfortunately for the Mets, does not look much different. Tom Glavine and Al Leiter would have made an impressive front-end of a rotation five or six season ago, but age is taking a toll on these two pitchers. Steve Trachsel continues to plod along, and Jae Weong Seo was a bright spot last year. The top half of the Mets' lineup should be good: Kaz Matsui, Jose Reyes, Mike Piazza, and Cliff Floyd could all produce if healthy, but Mike Cameron and the hitters below him will probably do more to break the Mets' season than make it.
Obvious story line: For the Mets this year, there are two obvious story lines. Once is Mike Piazza's boring switch to first base. Really, who cares? Good luck there, Mike; just watch that groin on the stretches. The other obvious story — Matsui Mania — is much more interesting. In Japan, Matsui was a bona fide star. He hit .305/.368/.549 with 33 HR. The Mets are so high on him that they gave Kaz $20.1 million for 3 years and moved Jose Reyes, one of the best young short stops in the game, over to second. While many analysts think Matsui will excel in the America, I see an alarming increase in his strike out rate in Japan. In 2000, he struck out 60 times in 550 at bats; last year, he K'ed 124 times in 587 at bats while drawing only 55 walks. While Hideki Matsui struck out fewer times in his first big league season, Hideki was a better contact hitter with a higher OBP in Japan than Kazuo was. Additionally, baseball analysts are predicting 30 stolen bases for Matsui this year. Yet, last year in Japan, he stole just 13, down from 33 the year before. While the Mets may reap the benefits of signing Japan's best second baseman, his strike outs could become very problematic as he adjusts to a new brand of baseball, and his expected speed just might not be there at all.
Interesting story line: In 160 at bats last year, premier prospect Jose Reyes hit .269/.333/.356 with 5 HR, 32 RBIs, and 47 runs scored. Back in 1995, also at age 20, a young Alex Rodriguez hit .232/.264/.408 with 5 HR, 19 RBIs, and only 15 runs scored in 142 at bats. Last year, Reyes walked 13 times while striking out 36 times; in 1995, A-Rod walked 6 times while striking out 42 times. While A-Rod showed much more power and slightly better hitting skills at the Minor League level than Reyes did, it's not inconceivable to think that Reyes could develop into a hitter of A-Rod's caliber, just without the 50-HR power. This season will be a big step in the development of Reyes as a ball player, and it will be interesting to watch how he adapts to a new position in his first full season in New York. If he fails at short, the only people to blame are the Mets development team. I believe that, in the long run, Jose Reyes has more to offer the Mets than Kazuo Matsui. It's conceivable that he could have been the next A-Rod. I hope the Mets made the right move in moving Reyes to second.
Prospect to watch (or trade): Aaron Heilman is one of the highest-regarded prospects in the Mets' system. Yet, last season, he tanked. In 13 starts, he went 2-7 with a 6.75 ERA. He gave up 79 hits and walked 41 in 65.1 innings for a WHIP 1.85. The 25-year-old wasn't fooling anyone. This year, Heilman has a shot at being the Mets' fifth starter, and he's pitched well down at Port St. Lucie this spring. For the Mets, this is the do or die season for Heilman. If Aaron sputters at the start, the Mets ought to trade him before his stock sinks to low. If he fulfills his potential, he could be a big part of the Mets' rotation as they rebuild from a solid core of minor leaguers.
5. Montreal Expos — This off-season, Major League Baseball officially gave up on the Montreal Expos. They didn't make an effort to sign Vladimir Guerrero, and they traded away their pitching future when Javier Vazquez landed with the Yankees. The Expos' rotation is spotty with Livan Hernandez and Tony Armas providing the weakest one-two punch in the NL East. Behind them are Zach Day, Tomo Ohka, and Claudio Vargas. I think the names speak for themselves. While Nick Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, and Jose Vidro will be decent in the middle of the order, Vidro may not be in Canada past July. Outside of Brad Wilkerson, the outfield of Carl Everett, Juan Rivera, Termel Sledge, and Endy Chavez is pretty much a disaster. With the exception of Everett, the other four guys have yet to establish themselves at the big league level, and Everett is a problem himself. While the Expos were in the Wild Card lead through August last year, don't expect the same level of competitiveness from the team this year.
Way too obvious story line: The only people to blame for the sorry state of the Expos are Bud Selig and his people. Had Major League Baseball and the other 29 owners actively pursued their relocation plan and a potential suitor for the Expos, the team from Montreal (or Washington, D.C., or anywhere else)with a new owner and a fan base may have been able to afford Guerrero or Vazquez. Yet, MLB keeps pushing back the timetable for relocation. The Expos are already a PR nightmare for Selig and Co. It's time for them to actively pursue this issue. As with last year, this will again dominate the Expos' season.
Perversely interesting story line: Last year, the Expos averaged 12,662 fans per home game. While this does include a bunch of games in Puerto Rico, that number is still good enough for last place in attendance. And this was in a year when the people of Montreal thought they were seeing the Expos for the last time. As the Expos get worse, it will be interesting to see how few people they draw to their games. The Cubs and Yankees among others have, on average, outdrawn the Expos at home during Spring Training; if the Expos show no life during the beginning of the season, and MLB draws out the relocation process even more, Olympic Stadium might have more people on the field than in the seats come late August and September.
Ex-Yankee to watch: Somehow, Nick Johnson was underrated while he was on the Yankees. He had an OBP of .422 and walked 13 more times than he struck out, a rare feat indeed. He drove in 47 runs while scoring 60 in only 96 games. He saw 4.28 pitches per plate appearance, second only to Edgar Martinez, but he did not have the necessary number of at bats to qualify for the leader boards. In Montreal, Nick could blossom into a huge star. He'll be batting third in the lineup with decent protection in Vidro behind him. While he has yet to show that he can stay healthy for entire season at any level of pro ball, he could put up a huge season for the Expos and your fantasy team if he gets 450 at bats. But, if the past is any indication, even 400 ABs is unlikely, and Nick already has experienced some lower back pain this spring.
American League West
1. Oakland Athletics — This division is tough. The Angels made some significant improvements this season, and the Mariners' line up still packs a punch. But in the end, I have to go with the A's for one reason. Well, maybe it's three reasons. With Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito pitching three out of five days, it's easy to win. Backed up by Rich Harden and Mark Redman, the A's have one of the best rotations in the American League, and easily the best rotation in the West. Despite their lack of offense and shaky bullpen situation, their pitching should carry them to another division title in the West.
Obvious story line: The A's finally have their $66-million man. By signing his big contract, Eric Chavez immediately became the most important man in the A's lineup (although he probably was before he signed the contract). Chavez now must start hitting lefties. In his career, he's managed a remarkable .302 BA off righties and a woeful .229 off lefties. He no longer enjoys the protection of Miguel Tejada; instead, he'll be hitting in front of Jermaine Dye (awful) and Erubiel Durazo (potentially decent protection). The A's offense which pales in comparison to the years of Chavez-Giambi-Tejada will be riding on Chavez's bat alone. He holds the key to Oakland's October chances.
Interesting story line: Last season, Arthur Rhodes' ERA ballooned from 1.72 in 2001 to 4.17. He struck out only 48, down from 81 in 2002, and gave up only 1 fewer hit than innings pitched. While the guys at Baseball Prospectus think 2003 was merely a fluke for Rhodes, I think the 307 appearances he's made over the last 4 season may be taking its toll; that is, after a while, a lot of bull pen pitches. The A's are relying on Rhodes to close this year with almost no options behind him. For the success of the Big Three to translate into wins, Rhodes will have to hope that he can regain his 2001-2002 form.
Ballpark to watch: Just last week, Bud Selig announced that the Oakland Coliseum "cannot produce enough revenue for his team to be competitive and keep the players they want to keep." Yet, at the same time, Selig won't let the A's move to Santa Clara because that's within the Giants' territorial rights. So the A's are trapped in a bad ballpark with limited options. This team is one of the best franchises of the young 2000's; they deserve a new ballpark, and Selig shouldn't stop them. With a schedule that rarely sees the A's and Giants at home on the same day, a new ballpark in Santa Clara would hardly draw fans away from San Francisco. The A's ownership is fighting for a new ballpark, and Selig should be too.
2. Anaheim Angels — Many baseball guys picked the Angels to win the division. With the additions of Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, and Vladimir Guerrero, this team has the make up to win games, but I don't think they top the A's. With a offensive lineup of Guerrero, Garret Anderson, and a supposedly healthy Troy Glaus, the Angels pack more punch than the A's. However, Colon is too inconsistent to be considered in the same league as Zito-Mulder-Hudson, and Escobar is a number 3 guy who pitches a lot. The jury's still out on Jarrod Washburn, Ramon Ortiz, and John Lackey.
Obvious story line: Going back to Vegas, the odds on the Angels are 10 to 11, which means they are favored slightly over the 2 to 1 Athletics. Yet, I'm not picking them to win. Looking at Anaheim, the baseball world will wonder whether the Angels can win. Can David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy return to their 2002 forms? And more importantly, can the Angels finally avoid the injury bug? Vald, Glaus and Salmon need to stay healthy for this team to win, but more importantly, Garret Anderson has to play 150 games for the offense to stay scary good. Right now, Anderson has been hurt on and off during March. If any of these injuries carry over into the regular season, and if the players on the team play to their 2003 levels instead of 2002, the grade-B rotation won't be enough to propel the Angels passed a second place finish.
Interesting story line: In 2000, Darin Erstad hit .355. In 2003, at the age of 28-29, Erstad hit .255 and suffered numerous injuries. His legs are so bad that the Angels are moving him to first base. This move will take much of the strain off of Erstad's legs, and the Angels are hoping it translate into offensive success as well. While the big stories on this team will be Vlad, Colon, and Garret Anderson, Erstad could become an important x-factor. If the move is successful, and he can approach his 2000 levels again, the Angels will enjoy a big offensive boost. Otherwise, they'll have to contend with a woefully unproductive first baseman.
Factoid to watch: Garret Anderson is the holder of a dubious record: consecutive seasons with more than 35 doubles and fewer than 35 walks. Last season, he hit 49 doubles, but his walk total is slowing climbing towards 35. After hitting 34 in 1999, he walked only 24 times in 2000, 27 times in 2001, 30 times in 2002, and 31 times in 2003. If Anderson shows just a little more patience at the plate, his record-setting streak will be over. I fully expect him to get his 35 doubles, but seeing as how Garret is part of the Nomar-Soriano School of Swinging at Everything, those 35 walks may be a bit elusive.
3. Seattle Mariners — The Mariners will win 90 games this season, but still finish in 3rd place. It's simply a testament to how strong their division is. The lineup will look similar to last year's, which is part of the problem. Randy Winn replaces Mike Cameron (offensive upgrade, defensive downgrade), and Scott Spiezio unseats the awful Jeff Cirillo. There's absolutely no way Spiezio can be worse than Jeff Cirillo. It's just not possible. Ask Dave about that one; he'll definitely agree. The bullpen also looks good. Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Eddie Guardado will close out games. The rotation is the same as last year, which may be a problem. This team could win the West, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding the offense and starting pitching. In the end, the team inconsistencies will land them in third place.
Obvious story line: Much depends on Freddy Garcia. In 2001, when the Mariners won 116 games, Garcia was 18-6 with a 3.05 ERA. Since then, he's declined greatly, and last year, he was 12-14 with a 4.51 ERA. Furthermore, he gave up an astounding 31 home runs in 201.1 innings, or one every 6.5 innings. Many people in the baseball world were ready to write off Garcia, but he is after all only turning 28 in June. The Mariners are relying on him to rebound, and in Peoria, AZ, he's been solid. If Garcia can rebound, the Mariners may be able to pull off a division win, but if he struggles, the Mariners' hopes will flounder.
Interesting story line: For a few months last year, Ichiro looked decidedly human. After the All Star break, he hit just .259/301/.383 only 9 stolen bases (compared to 25 before the Break). Is this the Ichiro after the rest of the American League has figured him out? Only April and May of this year may tell. The Mariners need Ichiro to set the table. He has to get on base and steal to start the game, constantly throwing the defense off. If he struggles, the Mariners will be faced with a leadoff guy who sports a low .300s OBP. I wouldn't have expected this big of a fall from Ichiro, and I don't think it will be a permanent decline. I doubt however the he will again hit .350/.384/.457, as he did in 2001.
Wild Card race to watch: I have bad news for the fans of the AL West: The Wild Card will be coming from the East. Because this division is so strong, the top three teams will end up tearing each other up. The A's, Mariners, and Angels play each other about 4,000 teams each while the Yankees and Red Sox get to play the Orioles (who aren't that good) and the Devil Rays instead. I predict three 90-win teams from the West, but only the team on top of the standings on October 3 will play on.
4. Texas Rangers — No team shows that pitching wins quite like the Rangers. Last year, they scored 826 runs, good for fourth in the AL. But they gave up 969 runs, the most in the Majors by an astounding 61 runs. The good news for the Rangers is that, despite losing A-Rod, they should still score a lot of runs. The bad news is that they will still give up a lot of runs. They lost arguably their best pitcher when John Thomson went to their Braves, and their rotation of Chan Ho Park, Kenny Rogers, Colby Lewis (10-9, 7.30 ERA), Ricardo Rodriguez, and Joaquin Benoit (and his 23 home runs allowed in 105 innings) won't exactly strike fear in the hearts of anyone. Their bullpen could be good, but already Jeff Zimmerman's elbow has a knot, much like last year, and without him, the pen in Texas lacks a definite anchor. With a great young core of hitters, this team will show some promise, but their pitching just won't cut it in this highly-competitive division.
Obvious story line: Now that most of A-Rod's contract is off the books, the Rangers have more money to spend on pitching. If the Fuson/Hart General Manager team sees a competitive team, the Rangers could go out and pick up some pitching to help them down the stretch drive. I personally think the Rangers should just wait until next off-season. They shouldn't trade any of the young players who are key to their long-term success. Grady Fuson has the team on a long-term development path, and they shouldn't let the lures of short-term success ruin this plan.
Interesting story line: Last October, Alfonso Soriano managed to strike out 26 times in 71 at bats. At one point, he was benched in the World Series in favor of Enrique Wilson. Now, out of New York, Soriano has the opportunity to put that behind him. The heat in Texas will pad his home run total, and he won't have the New York media breathing down his back every time he strikes out four times per game. But will this stop him from swinging for the fences? I don't think so. Soriano, who's really 28, may have reached his peak, and now, every pitcher knows that the old strike-strike-fastball away routine will get Sori to flail at three straight pitches. Personally, I hope Alfonso succeeds beyond everyone's wildest imagination in Texas; he could make the Rangers fans forget about that A-Rod guy. But I fear that Soriano may be facing a lot of walks back to the dugout after those three-pitch at bats.
Spoilers to watch: The last five series of the Rangers' season are against, in this order, Oakland, Anaheim, Oakland, Seattle, and Anaheim. The Rangers could be the deciding factor in the AL West race. If the three teams are as close as I think they will be, the games they play against Texas in September and October will determine the outcome of the West. While the Rangers themselves probably won't be playing for anything special, their fans will enjoy some important games late in September this year.
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So that's it for part II. If you've made it this far, congratulations. I'll be back at the end of the week with my (shorter) look at the AL Central and my analysis of baseball's strongest division: the AL East.
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