Posted by Ben K. on Thursday, April 15, 2004
Defending the Defenders
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year beat the floundering Montreal/San Juan Expos' bats on the mound yesterday, and, in the fifth inning, he beat the Expos with his bat, driving home the same amount of runs with one swing that the Expos have scored since last Friday.
Dontrelle Willis pitched five innings of shut-out ball against a Montreal Expos team that couldn't buy a run. Then, in the fifth inning, already comfortable with a 5-0 lead, Willis got his third hit of the game, his second home run of the season. This one was a three-run shot off Jeremy Fikac. For Willis, this was the 22-year-old's seventh hit in seven at-bats, dating back to last season. He's 1-for-1 shy of the Marlins record, held jointly by Gary Sheffield and Preston Wilson. As an interesting side note, Willis now holds a .313 career batting average; he's 20 for 64.
But for both teams, this was more than just a drubbing and another outstanding pitching performance from the man who many baseball people felt did not deserve last year's Rookie of the Year Award. For both teams, this game epitomized the short season. Starting with the Expos, this game was just another in a long run of offensively offensive offense. (Try that one on for size.) In 8 games this season, the Expos have managed to eke across just 10 runs, and they have a team batting average of just .203. The Expos have been shut out 4 times in these 8 games. As a comparison, the 2003 Detroit Tigers were shut out 17 times over the course of the entire season. As this rate, the Expos would blow past that mark by the middle of May. Of course, it's only April, and it's silly to project season stats based on the first 8 games. But the Expos' offense won't get much better. Carl Everett, the man responsible for one-third of the Expos' home runs and 2 of their 10 RBIs, strained his shoulder today and could miss a considerable amount of time.
No one expected the Expos to be good, not with the off-season losses of Vladimir Guerrero to free agency and Javier Vazquez in a trade to the Yankees. But for Major League Baseball, this pathetic start does nothing to help them in their efforts to move or sell the Expos. While this start does not make this team more desirable in the eyes of any potential suitor, it makes it abundantly clear that the 29 MLB owners and Bud Selig's team over at the Commissioner's Office must do whatever they can to move the Expos to a real, stable market and find a real, stable owner who can invest money in this team. The Expos couldn't even make an offer to Guerrero because they have no real owner, and General Manager Omar Minaya reluctantly traded Vazquez because he knew at the end of this season that Vazquez would be gone because the 29 owners wouldn't be able to cough up the money to invest in one of the best young pitchers in the game.
A real owner — in a real market with a new stadium on the way — would be able to reinvest in this team. They would be able to draw fans and revenue from a huge market such as the Washington, D.C., area. With this stability in place, the Expos would become a viable franchise again. A new owner would reward Frank Robinson and Minaya with the players and development program these two overly-qualified and highly-neglected baseball men deserve. Yet, Major League Baseball continues to delay, and as the Expos lose and don't score any runs, the value of this franchise continues to drop, both to the owners and to the fans. It's time for some meaningful action on the Montreal front.
On the other side, Wednesday's game represents all that is right with the Marlins, and absolutely nothing could be better for the vibrant Florida Marlins than this opening 7-1 run. The Marlins currently enjoy the best record in the Majors, and the biggest first-place lead of any team. They have a 3-game lead over both the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets. These Marlins were picked by some people to finish fourth or even fifth in the league. The Marlins were supposed to have lost too much talent over the off-season, even if that talented consisted merely of an often-injured catcher, an somewhat unreliable closer who had a strong finish, and an All Star first baseman.
But baseball writers focused more on what the Marlins lost than on what they kept. They still have arguably the top offensive third baseman in the National League in Mike Lowell. (Check out Jon's post from Monday for a look at Lowell's and Morgan Ensberg's offense.) But more importantly, they have Miguel Cabrera the entire season this year. Apparently, Cabrera doesn't understand the idea of a sophomore slump. Or maybe he really is just this good. After Wednesday's game, Cabrera is hitting .387 with 6 home runs. Cabrera, who turns 21 years old has now homered in 4 consecutive games and is quickly becoming a leader of the Marlins' offense. The team now is hitting .302 overall this season, but they've only scored 35 runs in their 7 victories and 1 loss. And that's why this team is more than just the best 21-year-old out there.
What the baseball analysts failed to include in their assessments of the Marlins was the team's pitching. As I've said before, the Marlins have one of the best young rotations in the Major Leagues, and as long as their pitchers are healthy, it's impossible to discount this team. Willis is already 2-0 this season with a 0.00 ERA. In 12.2 innings, he's given up 9 hits and has struck out 12. And the catch is that Willis is not even the best starter on this team.
World Series MVP Josh Beckett this year has silenced all the critics so far. Everyone cited his 17-17 regular season record and his history of injuries. But in two starts, Beckett is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA. He has surrendered a grand total of 6 hits in 14 innings while striking out 20. Opponents are hitting .125 against Josh. Compared to Willis, Josh at 23 is an old man, but Roger Clemens is old enough to be Beckett's father. Unless a bad arm injury comes along, Beckett is set for a fine career. While some people will say that it's inevitable these days for a young pitcher to get injured, especially after Beckett's workhouse-like nature in the playoffs last October, I think otherwise. Beckett models himself off of his idol, the Rocket, and Clemens has never suffered a debilitating arm injury. There's no reason to think Beckett will one day face surgery; he's just not that kind of pitcher.
Rounding out the rotation are Brad Penny, Carl Pavano and Darren Oliver, for now. A.J. Burnett will eventually rejoin this team, but even without Burnett, the top starters are a formidable foresome. These guys are young, and they're not afraid to pitch. Just look at the success they all enjoyed at Yankee Stadium during the World Series. It truly was the world's biggest stage, and the team with the least experience came out on top in a very convincing fashion. So far, this year, the team's pitching has picked up where it left off. The Marlins, in 8 games, have given up 13 runs. That's it; just 13. No team in the American League has given up fewer than 29 runs, and the Reds have surrendered 18 runs in 7 games. For comparison's sake, the league's worst pitching team, the Cardinals, have given up 69 runs in 10 games. The Cards are pitching to an ERA of 6.90 while the Marlins are throwing blanks. Their team ERA is 1.63. Pitching truly does win games, championships and fans.
So then, if this losing is bad for the Expos, the winning — and with young players to boot — is great for the Marlins. Florida's ownership is currently waiting for the city of Miami to decide on the fate of a proposed new stadium planned for the downtown area. The team may have to give up the Florida moniker to become the Miami Marlins. But that's the least of their worries. The State of Florida is not too keen to help the Marlins out financially in their efforts to secure $325 million for a retractable roof stadium in Miami-Dade County. The Marlins' ownership says they need the promise of a new stadium by May 1 to remain financially viable in the upcoming seasons, but it's becoming more and more unlikely that this deadline will be met. There may be a state-wide vote on certain tax matters relating to the stadium, but in the end, the Marlins still need to find a way to get money for the stadium.
The best thing for this team, then, is to keep on winning. As long as they win, they'll keep up the interest of the millions of potential fans in South Florida. If interest is up, attendance is up, and if attendance is up, it's more likely for the fans to support money for a new stadium. I've seen Pro Player Stadium. It's a non-descript, enclosed football stadium located well outside the city. The Marlins need a domed stadium to guard against the constant summer rains, and they need a better located stadium. If the Marlins show they're for real — and a 7-1 start certainly is a big step — Floridians might just be willing to show the Marlins that they too are for real and that a nice, state-of-the-art stadium is for real as well.
On the surface, the pressure may be on Dontrelle to pick up that hit in the next at-bat. But for now, the Marlins no longer need to prove themselves to the baseball analysts. They were ignored World Champions who were supposed to be a flash in the pan team. But in the early going, they've set their reputation, and opposing hitters know it's not a walk in the park to face this team’s young arms. As the rest of the NL East is mired in mediocrity or worse, the Marlins could turn this early start into a runaway season. In the end, nothing could be better for the long-term success of this young and exciting franchise than their first place finish in the history of the franchise. Who knows? Maybe they'll even get another one of these fancy-looking, expensive rings at the end of the season.
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year beat the floundering Montreal/San Juan Expos' bats on the mound yesterday, and, in the fifth inning, he beat the Expos with his bat, driving home the same amount of runs with one swing that the Expos have scored since last Friday.
Dontrelle Willis pitched five innings of shut-out ball against a Montreal Expos team that couldn't buy a run. Then, in the fifth inning, already comfortable with a 5-0 lead, Willis got his third hit of the game, his second home run of the season. This one was a three-run shot off Jeremy Fikac. For Willis, this was the 22-year-old's seventh hit in seven at-bats, dating back to last season. He's 1-for-1 shy of the Marlins record, held jointly by Gary Sheffield and Preston Wilson. As an interesting side note, Willis now holds a .313 career batting average; he's 20 for 64.
But for both teams, this was more than just a drubbing and another outstanding pitching performance from the man who many baseball people felt did not deserve last year's Rookie of the Year Award. For both teams, this game epitomized the short season. Starting with the Expos, this game was just another in a long run of offensively offensive offense. (Try that one on for size.) In 8 games this season, the Expos have managed to eke across just 10 runs, and they have a team batting average of just .203. The Expos have been shut out 4 times in these 8 games. As a comparison, the 2003 Detroit Tigers were shut out 17 times over the course of the entire season. As this rate, the Expos would blow past that mark by the middle of May. Of course, it's only April, and it's silly to project season stats based on the first 8 games. But the Expos' offense won't get much better. Carl Everett, the man responsible for one-third of the Expos' home runs and 2 of their 10 RBIs, strained his shoulder today and could miss a considerable amount of time.
No one expected the Expos to be good, not with the off-season losses of Vladimir Guerrero to free agency and Javier Vazquez in a trade to the Yankees. But for Major League Baseball, this pathetic start does nothing to help them in their efforts to move or sell the Expos. While this start does not make this team more desirable in the eyes of any potential suitor, it makes it abundantly clear that the 29 MLB owners and Bud Selig's team over at the Commissioner's Office must do whatever they can to move the Expos to a real, stable market and find a real, stable owner who can invest money in this team. The Expos couldn't even make an offer to Guerrero because they have no real owner, and General Manager Omar Minaya reluctantly traded Vazquez because he knew at the end of this season that Vazquez would be gone because the 29 owners wouldn't be able to cough up the money to invest in one of the best young pitchers in the game.
A real owner — in a real market with a new stadium on the way — would be able to reinvest in this team. They would be able to draw fans and revenue from a huge market such as the Washington, D.C., area. With this stability in place, the Expos would become a viable franchise again. A new owner would reward Frank Robinson and Minaya with the players and development program these two overly-qualified and highly-neglected baseball men deserve. Yet, Major League Baseball continues to delay, and as the Expos lose and don't score any runs, the value of this franchise continues to drop, both to the owners and to the fans. It's time for some meaningful action on the Montreal front.
On the other side, Wednesday's game represents all that is right with the Marlins, and absolutely nothing could be better for the vibrant Florida Marlins than this opening 7-1 run. The Marlins currently enjoy the best record in the Majors, and the biggest first-place lead of any team. They have a 3-game lead over both the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets. These Marlins were picked by some people to finish fourth or even fifth in the league. The Marlins were supposed to have lost too much talent over the off-season, even if that talented consisted merely of an often-injured catcher, an somewhat unreliable closer who had a strong finish, and an All Star first baseman.
But baseball writers focused more on what the Marlins lost than on what they kept. They still have arguably the top offensive third baseman in the National League in Mike Lowell. (Check out Jon's post from Monday for a look at Lowell's and Morgan Ensberg's offense.) But more importantly, they have Miguel Cabrera the entire season this year. Apparently, Cabrera doesn't understand the idea of a sophomore slump. Or maybe he really is just this good. After Wednesday's game, Cabrera is hitting .387 with 6 home runs. Cabrera, who turns 21 years old has now homered in 4 consecutive games and is quickly becoming a leader of the Marlins' offense. The team now is hitting .302 overall this season, but they've only scored 35 runs in their 7 victories and 1 loss. And that's why this team is more than just the best 21-year-old out there.
What the baseball analysts failed to include in their assessments of the Marlins was the team's pitching. As I've said before, the Marlins have one of the best young rotations in the Major Leagues, and as long as their pitchers are healthy, it's impossible to discount this team. Willis is already 2-0 this season with a 0.00 ERA. In 12.2 innings, he's given up 9 hits and has struck out 12. And the catch is that Willis is not even the best starter on this team.
World Series MVP Josh Beckett this year has silenced all the critics so far. Everyone cited his 17-17 regular season record and his history of injuries. But in two starts, Beckett is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA. He has surrendered a grand total of 6 hits in 14 innings while striking out 20. Opponents are hitting .125 against Josh. Compared to Willis, Josh at 23 is an old man, but Roger Clemens is old enough to be Beckett's father. Unless a bad arm injury comes along, Beckett is set for a fine career. While some people will say that it's inevitable these days for a young pitcher to get injured, especially after Beckett's workhouse-like nature in the playoffs last October, I think otherwise. Beckett models himself off of his idol, the Rocket, and Clemens has never suffered a debilitating arm injury. There's no reason to think Beckett will one day face surgery; he's just not that kind of pitcher.
Rounding out the rotation are Brad Penny, Carl Pavano and Darren Oliver, for now. A.J. Burnett will eventually rejoin this team, but even without Burnett, the top starters are a formidable foresome. These guys are young, and they're not afraid to pitch. Just look at the success they all enjoyed at Yankee Stadium during the World Series. It truly was the world's biggest stage, and the team with the least experience came out on top in a very convincing fashion. So far, this year, the team's pitching has picked up where it left off. The Marlins, in 8 games, have given up 13 runs. That's it; just 13. No team in the American League has given up fewer than 29 runs, and the Reds have surrendered 18 runs in 7 games. For comparison's sake, the league's worst pitching team, the Cardinals, have given up 69 runs in 10 games. The Cards are pitching to an ERA of 6.90 while the Marlins are throwing blanks. Their team ERA is 1.63. Pitching truly does win games, championships and fans.
So then, if this losing is bad for the Expos, the winning — and with young players to boot — is great for the Marlins. Florida's ownership is currently waiting for the city of Miami to decide on the fate of a proposed new stadium planned for the downtown area. The team may have to give up the Florida moniker to become the Miami Marlins. But that's the least of their worries. The State of Florida is not too keen to help the Marlins out financially in their efforts to secure $325 million for a retractable roof stadium in Miami-Dade County. The Marlins' ownership says they need the promise of a new stadium by May 1 to remain financially viable in the upcoming seasons, but it's becoming more and more unlikely that this deadline will be met. There may be a state-wide vote on certain tax matters relating to the stadium, but in the end, the Marlins still need to find a way to get money for the stadium.
The best thing for this team, then, is to keep on winning. As long as they win, they'll keep up the interest of the millions of potential fans in South Florida. If interest is up, attendance is up, and if attendance is up, it's more likely for the fans to support money for a new stadium. I've seen Pro Player Stadium. It's a non-descript, enclosed football stadium located well outside the city. The Marlins need a domed stadium to guard against the constant summer rains, and they need a better located stadium. If the Marlins show they're for real — and a 7-1 start certainly is a big step — Floridians might just be willing to show the Marlins that they too are for real and that a nice, state-of-the-art stadium is for real as well.
On the surface, the pressure may be on Dontrelle to pick up that hit in the next at-bat. But for now, the Marlins no longer need to prove themselves to the baseball analysts. They were ignored World Champions who were supposed to be a flash in the pan team. But in the early going, they've set their reputation, and opposing hitters know it's not a walk in the park to face this team’s young arms. As the rest of the NL East is mired in mediocrity or worse, the Marlins could turn this early start into a runaway season. In the end, nothing could be better for the long-term success of this young and exciting franchise than their first place finish in the history of the franchise. Who knows? Maybe they'll even get another one of these fancy-looking, expensive rings at the end of the season.
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###
Posted by Ben K. on Tuesday, April 13, 2004
Missing the Mark
While the exorcism of the Steve Bartman ball may have led many Cubs fans to believe the Curse was at end, news out of Chicago probably has many fans rethinking their spring optimism.
The definite news, as ESPN and various other news services have reported, is that Cubs' ace Mark Prior is off a timetable and may not return until late May or early June. That's also the good news.
For the bad news, some newspapers have picked up on a few rumors circulating about the condition of Prior's inflamed right (pitching) elbow. Sunday's edition of The Newark Star Ledger had this to say about Prior's arm:
Last year was Mark Prior's first full season with the Cubs. In April and May of 2003, Prior made 11 starts. In those starts, he was 6-2 with a combined with a 2.82 ERA. Overall, during that stretch, the Cubs were 8-3 in games Prior started. Furthermore, in those 11 starts, opponents hit just .219 against Prior, and he walked 21 while striking out 83. Tellingly, he also exceeded 100 pitches in nine of those 11 starts, with two starts at 123 and 124 pitches. For a pitcher who at the time was 22, it's no big surprise that his elbow may have been a little sore this year after averaging 113.4 pitchers per game in 30 regular season starts and 122.67 in three post-season starts.
To study Prior's immediate replacement, first I'm going to look at Greg Maddux's numbers. As of now, Maddux is serving as Prior's direct replacement, taking the number two spot in the rotation behind Wood. Maddux so far has not put up pretty numbers in two starts this season. He's thrown 9.2 innings this season and has given up 8 earned runs. He has surrendered 12 hits and has walked 7. This is the same Greg Maddux who never walked more than 52 men when he was with the Braves, and even that was back in 1992, his first year in Atlanta. With an 0-2 record, a WHIP of 1.987 and an un-Maddux-like ERA of 7.45, he has yet to instill faith in the Wrigley Faithful, and some people are beginning to doubt that he can win the 11 he needs to get to 300.
Going back to Maddux's first 12 starts between March, April, and May of last year, the numbers don't look much prettier. Maddux was 4-5 with a 4.89 ERA. If Maddux straightens his ship after two rough outings and manages to meet last year's opening numbers, the Cubs would project to 2.5 games worse with Maddux than with Prior. Those 2.5 games could be the difference between them and the Astros or even the Cardinals come September.
But the trend doesn't stop at Maddux. Remember, Maddux would be pitching and making the same starts whether Prior were healthy or not. I just wanted to illustrate Maddux's recent struggles. The true replacement in the pitching rotation is the number five guy,Sergio Mitre, a second- or third-tier prospect in the Cubs' organization. Researching Mitre, I didn't find too much information that would make me feel good about him. The 2004 Baseball Prospectus book says, "When your ace is on the shelf for a turn or two, and you don't want to taint the psyche or the arbitration status of one of your best pitching prospects, what do you do? You call up Sergio Mitre."
Over on ESPN, John Sickels of Baseball Prospectus elaborated a little. He wrote that Mitre is the "surprise pick as No. 5 starter, taking advantage of Mark Prior's injury. He's received less notice than other hot prospects in the Cubs' pitching-rich system, but his sinker is nasty and he usually throws strikes. Our Bet: He's not quite ready, and will struggle at times until Prior comes back." Faced with a prolonged absence of Prior, it's hard to find comfort in the scouting reports. Looking at the numbers, Mitre was good in his first start of the season. He limited the Braves to two runs and five hits in 7 and a third innings. Yet, last year, in three outings, he surrendered 15 hits and 8 earned runs. It seems that Mitre's effectiveness varies from appearance to appearance, and no scouting report makes him out to be better than a 5th starter. Last season, the Cubs' fifth starter, the seemingly-rejuvenated Shawn Estes, was 5-4 with a high ERA during the first two months of the season. The unproven Mitre would hypothetically have to match those numbers to keep the Cubs on pace to Maddux's hypothetical 2.5 game deficit. If Mitre sticks around for the duration of Prior's absence, the Cubs could be facing a bigger challenge when it comes time to catch up to the NL Central leader.
Before I look at what the Cubs should do, it is important to recognize that a lot of my projections are fairly unscientific. The projections are based upon what this year's Cubs are doing in relation to last year's Cubs. I'm not looking at what the rest of the NL Central is doing this year as compared to last year. I'm assuming that Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, and Carlos Zambrano all perform at their 2003 level. If they perform better, they could compensate for the temporary loss of Prior. It's interesting to note that the Cubs right now are 3-4. After the first seven games last year, they were 4-3, the difference right now fitting my theory. Mark Prior in the first seven games of 2003 was 1-0. Greg Maddux in the first seven games of 2004 is 0-2. If Maddux had been the number 3 starter behind Prior from Opening Day, it's possible to assume that the Cubs could be 4-3 or even 5-2 by now.
Finally, I wonder if the Cubs are making the right decision using Mitre if Prior is going to be out until the end of May or the beginning of June. While the Cubs' organization is stacked with pitching, the top prospects have only begun their ascent to Chicago; most of them pitched at an A-ball level last year with one making a late-season leap to AA. Their second-tier prospects will have to fill in for Prior. If Mitre doesn't work out, the Cubs will turn to Todd Wellemeyer to start. Wellemeyer is currently in the bullpen in Chicago, and while he has a great fastball and an effective slider, he's also walked 7 in 4.1 innings.
In the end, things look a little bleak for the Cubs if the bad news rumors come true. Losing Prior for the entire season would probably mean that the Cubs won't win the World Series that was supposed to be theirs. Losing Prior for just two months could mean the same thing, but if Wood, Clement, and Zambrano hold down the fort for a few weeks and Prior can make a successful and healthy return by late May or early June, the fans in Chicago could be primed for a great summer run and an exciting pennant race in the Central.
Picks of the Week
Tuesday, April 13: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m.
For all the reasons to watch this game, see today's trivia question.
Wednesday, April 14: Seattle Mariners at Anaheim Angles, 10:05 p.m.
Here's a shout out to the under-represented West Coast (or at least under-represented on the East Coast). Freddy Garcia had a game during his first start of the season. He threw 7 shut-out innings, giving up 4 hits while striking out 7 and walking 2 against Anaheim. Ramon Ortiz, on the other hand, was horrible. Against the Rangers, he lasted 2.2 innings, giving up 9 hits and 7 earned runs. The two will square off against each other on Wednesday night as Seattle fans hope that Garcia's first outing is a preview of great things from the starter who's struggled the last few seasons.
Thursday, April 15: Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, 1:05 p.m.
The struggling Blue Jays take on the upstart Tigers this week, and during Thursday's matinee, the incumbent AL Cy Young Award winner will look to right a sinking ship. Roy Halladay is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA this season. While he didn't win a game until May 1 last year, he didn't pitch this poorly during his victory-less start. Canadians everywhere will be holding their breaths as they hope Roy can recover his form. He is after all the only decent pitcher left in Toronto. On the other side, the Tigers will look to continue their strong play against a team with a strong offense. This series against the Blue Jays will be a test of the Tigers' shaky pitching. If they can come away from this series with a few victories, it may be time to start taking Detroit seriously.
Trivia Answer and a New Question
In my post on Friday, I asked our readers to name the two teams against which the Red Sox have a lifelong losing record. The two responses both guessed the Yankees and the Tigers. I have to admit, in the context of the post, it was a trick question. First, the real reason it was a trick question was the Red Sox are 973-928 against Detroit. Second, there are actually three teams that are over .500 against the Bo Sox. The Yankees are 1050-870 against Boston; the Indians are 994-919 against the Sox; and the team I forgot, the Royals, are 192-175 against Boston.
Today's new question has a twist: I don't know the answer. Today, Kevin Brown will for the third time face the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. So far against Tampa this year, Brown is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA. If Brown wins, it will be his third start of the season, his third start against Tampa Bay, and his third victory of the season. My question: Has any pitcher in baseball history opened the season with three straight starts against the same team and has come away as a winner in each of those three starts? If you think you know an answer, leave a comment, and I'll attempt to find out whether or not this has happened in baseball history. It's quite possible that with a victory tonight, Kevin Brown will be the first pitcher to accomplish this strange feat.
### So what do you think? We want to know. | | E-mail us ###
While the exorcism of the Steve Bartman ball may have led many Cubs fans to believe the Curse was at end, news out of Chicago probably has many fans rethinking their spring optimism.
The definite news, as ESPN and various other news services have reported, is that Cubs' ace Mark Prior is off a timetable and may not return until late May or early June. That's also the good news.
For the bad news, some newspapers have picked up on a few rumors circulating about the condition of Prior's inflamed right (pitching) elbow. Sunday's edition of The Newark Star Ledger had this to say about Prior's arm:
"MARK PRIOR'S right elbow injury could be serious enough to require Tommy John surgery and keep him out for the whole year, according to the word circulating among baseball executives. Cubs manager DUSTY BAKER, who has a tendency to leave his starters in for extremely high pitch counts, has been confiding in friends that the situation is bleak. Losing Prior for an extended time would obviously be a big blow for the Cubs, who don't have a lot of wiggle room in their payroll budget to trade for another starter."Dusty, who doesn't think there is such a thing as "too long" when talking about his starting pitchers, has adamantly denied these rumors. While I personally doubt the Cubs would have Prior throwing even long toss if he did indeed need reconstructive elbow surgery, the reality of the situation is that the Chicago Cubs will be without Mark Prior through at least the first two months of their season. While he should be healthy and ready to go for the stretch drive of the summer, these two months could mean the difference between the Cubs' playoff chances and another long October in Chicago. While some people tend to dismiss games at the beginning of the season as meaningless games, when the pennant race promises to be as competitive as the NL Central will be, it's important to remember that every missed start weighs heavily on a team. Just how big will Prior's absence be to the Cubs? (For a different take on the Prior injury, check out Jon's post from March 24.)
Last year was Mark Prior's first full season with the Cubs. In April and May of 2003, Prior made 11 starts. In those starts, he was 6-2 with a combined with a 2.82 ERA. Overall, during that stretch, the Cubs were 8-3 in games Prior started. Furthermore, in those 11 starts, opponents hit just .219 against Prior, and he walked 21 while striking out 83. Tellingly, he also exceeded 100 pitches in nine of those 11 starts, with two starts at 123 and 124 pitches. For a pitcher who at the time was 22, it's no big surprise that his elbow may have been a little sore this year after averaging 113.4 pitchers per game in 30 regular season starts and 122.67 in three post-season starts.
To study Prior's immediate replacement, first I'm going to look at Greg Maddux's numbers. As of now, Maddux is serving as Prior's direct replacement, taking the number two spot in the rotation behind Wood. Maddux so far has not put up pretty numbers in two starts this season. He's thrown 9.2 innings this season and has given up 8 earned runs. He has surrendered 12 hits and has walked 7. This is the same Greg Maddux who never walked more than 52 men when he was with the Braves, and even that was back in 1992, his first year in Atlanta. With an 0-2 record, a WHIP of 1.987 and an un-Maddux-like ERA of 7.45, he has yet to instill faith in the Wrigley Faithful, and some people are beginning to doubt that he can win the 11 he needs to get to 300.
Going back to Maddux's first 12 starts between March, April, and May of last year, the numbers don't look much prettier. Maddux was 4-5 with a 4.89 ERA. If Maddux straightens his ship after two rough outings and manages to meet last year's opening numbers, the Cubs would project to 2.5 games worse with Maddux than with Prior. Those 2.5 games could be the difference between them and the Astros or even the Cardinals come September.
But the trend doesn't stop at Maddux. Remember, Maddux would be pitching and making the same starts whether Prior were healthy or not. I just wanted to illustrate Maddux's recent struggles. The true replacement in the pitching rotation is the number five guy,Sergio Mitre, a second- or third-tier prospect in the Cubs' organization. Researching Mitre, I didn't find too much information that would make me feel good about him. The 2004 Baseball Prospectus book says, "When your ace is on the shelf for a turn or two, and you don't want to taint the psyche or the arbitration status of one of your best pitching prospects, what do you do? You call up Sergio Mitre."
Over on ESPN, John Sickels of Baseball Prospectus elaborated a little. He wrote that Mitre is the "surprise pick as No. 5 starter, taking advantage of Mark Prior's injury. He's received less notice than other hot prospects in the Cubs' pitching-rich system, but his sinker is nasty and he usually throws strikes. Our Bet: He's not quite ready, and will struggle at times until Prior comes back." Faced with a prolonged absence of Prior, it's hard to find comfort in the scouting reports. Looking at the numbers, Mitre was good in his first start of the season. He limited the Braves to two runs and five hits in 7 and a third innings. Yet, last year, in three outings, he surrendered 15 hits and 8 earned runs. It seems that Mitre's effectiveness varies from appearance to appearance, and no scouting report makes him out to be better than a 5th starter. Last season, the Cubs' fifth starter, the seemingly-rejuvenated Shawn Estes, was 5-4 with a high ERA during the first two months of the season. The unproven Mitre would hypothetically have to match those numbers to keep the Cubs on pace to Maddux's hypothetical 2.5 game deficit. If Mitre sticks around for the duration of Prior's absence, the Cubs could be facing a bigger challenge when it comes time to catch up to the NL Central leader.
Before I look at what the Cubs should do, it is important to recognize that a lot of my projections are fairly unscientific. The projections are based upon what this year's Cubs are doing in relation to last year's Cubs. I'm not looking at what the rest of the NL Central is doing this year as compared to last year. I'm assuming that Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, and Carlos Zambrano all perform at their 2003 level. If they perform better, they could compensate for the temporary loss of Prior. It's interesting to note that the Cubs right now are 3-4. After the first seven games last year, they were 4-3, the difference right now fitting my theory. Mark Prior in the first seven games of 2003 was 1-0. Greg Maddux in the first seven games of 2004 is 0-2. If Maddux had been the number 3 starter behind Prior from Opening Day, it's possible to assume that the Cubs could be 4-3 or even 5-2 by now.
Finally, I wonder if the Cubs are making the right decision using Mitre if Prior is going to be out until the end of May or the beginning of June. While the Cubs' organization is stacked with pitching, the top prospects have only begun their ascent to Chicago; most of them pitched at an A-ball level last year with one making a late-season leap to AA. Their second-tier prospects will have to fill in for Prior. If Mitre doesn't work out, the Cubs will turn to Todd Wellemeyer to start. Wellemeyer is currently in the bullpen in Chicago, and while he has a great fastball and an effective slider, he's also walked 7 in 4.1 innings.
In the end, things look a little bleak for the Cubs if the bad news rumors come true. Losing Prior for the entire season would probably mean that the Cubs won't win the World Series that was supposed to be theirs. Losing Prior for just two months could mean the same thing, but if Wood, Clement, and Zambrano hold down the fort for a few weeks and Prior can make a successful and healthy return by late May or early June, the fans in Chicago could be primed for a great summer run and an exciting pennant race in the Central.
Picks of the Week
Tuesday, April 13: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m.
For all the reasons to watch this game, see today's trivia question.
Wednesday, April 14: Seattle Mariners at Anaheim Angles, 10:05 p.m.
Here's a shout out to the under-represented West Coast (or at least under-represented on the East Coast). Freddy Garcia had a game during his first start of the season. He threw 7 shut-out innings, giving up 4 hits while striking out 7 and walking 2 against Anaheim. Ramon Ortiz, on the other hand, was horrible. Against the Rangers, he lasted 2.2 innings, giving up 9 hits and 7 earned runs. The two will square off against each other on Wednesday night as Seattle fans hope that Garcia's first outing is a preview of great things from the starter who's struggled the last few seasons.
Thursday, April 15: Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, 1:05 p.m.
The struggling Blue Jays take on the upstart Tigers this week, and during Thursday's matinee, the incumbent AL Cy Young Award winner will look to right a sinking ship. Roy Halladay is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA this season. While he didn't win a game until May 1 last year, he didn't pitch this poorly during his victory-less start. Canadians everywhere will be holding their breaths as they hope Roy can recover his form. He is after all the only decent pitcher left in Toronto. On the other side, the Tigers will look to continue their strong play against a team with a strong offense. This series against the Blue Jays will be a test of the Tigers' shaky pitching. If they can come away from this series with a few victories, it may be time to start taking Detroit seriously.
Trivia Answer and a New Question
In my post on Friday, I asked our readers to name the two teams against which the Red Sox have a lifelong losing record. The two responses both guessed the Yankees and the Tigers. I have to admit, in the context of the post, it was a trick question. First, the real reason it was a trick question was the Red Sox are 973-928 against Detroit. Second, there are actually three teams that are over .500 against the Bo Sox. The Yankees are 1050-870 against Boston; the Indians are 994-919 against the Sox; and the team I forgot, the Royals, are 192-175 against Boston.
Today's new question has a twist: I don't know the answer. Today, Kevin Brown will for the third time face the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. So far against Tampa this year, Brown is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA. If Brown wins, it will be his third start of the season, his third start against Tampa Bay, and his third victory of the season. My question: Has any pitcher in baseball history opened the season with three straight starts against the same team and has come away as a winner in each of those three starts? If you think you know an answer, leave a comment, and I'll attempt to find out whether or not this has happened in baseball history. It's quite possible that with a victory tonight, Kevin Brown will be the first pitcher to accomplish this strange feat.
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